Thread by @sbmintelligence

It must be noted that this crisis is not the first this year to engulf Kasuwan Magani, #Kaduna.

At least 12 persons were killed and 1,000 houses destroyed in a religious crisis that erupted on 26 February over the conversion of a Christian girl to Islam by her Muslim boyfriend.

65 persons were subsequently arrested and charged to court by @contactkdsg.

The history of #Kaduna is filled with crises cutting across religious, economic and tribal lines, and various governments, both military and civilian have been unable to prevent the lawlessness.

The state government’s helplessness was laid bare during the 2016 crisis between herdsmen and farmers in #Godogodo.

The payment of compensation only for cattle killed in the crisis exposed the unwillingness of @contactkdsg to confront these security threats head-on.

As @elrufai at a meeting with traditional rulers pointed out, “it appears that a constituency has developed which believes that violence pays, and is convinced that violence has no consequence for the perpetrators.”

The irony of this is lost on @elrufai who claimed on video to have paid perpetrators of violence in the past as a compensation for previous loss, without realising that by saying so, he signalled to others that violence pays.

The promise of action rings hollow particularly to Christians, farmers and the ethnic minorities of #Kaduna who appear to have been at the receiving end during various crises that have erupted in the state.

The division between various groups in #Kaduna was laid bare when in 2010, various groups opposed the nomination of the sitting governor, @Muhammedsambo, as VP under @GEJonathan if it would result in the elevation of Ibrahim Yakowa, a Southern Kaduna Christian as @GovKaduna.

However, with the current election cycle in full swing, it can only be expected that both the politicians and the electorate will become increasingly distracted by the political campaigns that will begin in earnest.

While the crisis will most certainly serve as a talking point for both sides, we doubt that government officials, political, religious and socio-cultural leaders or traditional rulers will be focused sufficiently to carry out the far reaching actions necessary to build peace.

It must be noted that previous governments took little or no action on the recommendations of various investigative bodies established to identify the causes of the crises & recommend the way forward.

There's nothing indicating that this current situation will be any different.

It is however pertinent to point out that #Nigeria runs the risk of both flanks of North Nigeria being engulfed in violence all the way to the Middle Belt.

On the eastern side, #BokoHaram is actively engaging @HQNigerianarmy units in #Borno and active in #Yobe, while pastoralists continue to inflict casualties on farming communities further into the eastern flank of the North East to Central, with retaliatory attacks rising.

On the western flank of Northern #Nigeria, the violence now runs in an almost unbroken chain from #Zamfara into Northern #Kaduna and then Southern Kaduna and #Plateau.

A disputed #NigeriaDecides2019, either at the Presidential or Governorship level may reignite the conflict in #Kaduna similar to the 2011 post-election violence.

With perceived huge support enjoyed by @MBuhari in the region, a loss for him is likely to lead to attacks by his supporters on perceived opponents.

If not checked, the violence may devolve along ethnic and religious lines, leading to reprisals in minority dominated areas.

A clear commitment akin to @GEJonathan’s “my ambition is not worth a single drop of Nigerian blood” must be made both by @MBuhari and @elrufai, with the fortitude to follow through in the event the elections don't go their way.

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