Something to think about. In 2016 exit polls showed that 9% of Dems voted for Trump and 2% voted third party. It also showed 7% of GOP voted for Hillary and 3% voted for 3rd party. However that's not the whole story. 16% of white Dems voted for Trump instead of Hillary.
Now ask yourself of those groups have the Dems did anything to win those 16% in the last two years? That 11%? Has Trump did anything to win that 10% back?
I think it's pretty clear which voters are more likely to come home and which aren't.
I think it's pretty clear which voters are more likely to come home and which aren't.
But lets assume nothing changed. Big assumption. You still have 11% of Dems voting for GOP and 10% of GOP voting for Dems. Now let's assume reality is real. Economy booming, Dem mobs are crazy. Which side will come home and which plays for the other team still?
You can quickly see how this would make all the polls crap. What if that 16% of white dems are still voting for GOP this time and only say 5% of those GOP voters are voting Dem?
Well if that happens and knowing the EV data, well let's just say tomorrow will be like nothing you have ever seen before.
Will it? Who knows....they are assumptions based on an educated look at the data. The same type of assumptions that pollsters made when they did their polls. But they made other assumptions. Now what happens if my assumptions are right and theirs are wrong?
The point of this exercise is to not predict the outcome of the election but to show you how an assumption can change the total POV of what you can expect from the real numbers you are seeing.
If 16% of white Dems never went home & in all honesty why would they? What have the Dems done in the last 2 yrs to reach out to those voters? Open borders, DACA, no wall, no tax cuts, no jobs? What would happen in a place like TN, NV or AZ if 16% of those white Dems voted GOP?
