So is it deal or no-deal in Brexitland today? @pmdfoster captures it well as ever in his latest - "Mrs May now faces a choice that is fundamentally tactical, rather than technical" - i.e. when to call deal 1/ telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Unfortunately the PM has been like a gambler on a losing run ever since she chose to pull the plug on a technical deal reached in the run up to the Salzburg summit - she has been losing support, and her ability to even get a deal through Cabinet is doubtful 2/
Foster holds out the hope at the end of his piece that if we get to the very edge of the cliff, the EU might yield on Ireland. I don't agree, this has been a fundamental since day 1, and the EU's whole approach has been based on preventing this happening 3/
It isn't Ireland that is at the centre of the PM's problem though - that is the continued unresolved schism in the conservative party between the business (close relationship) and imperial (loose relationship) wings. It is a fundamental difference in mindset 4/
If you are from the business wing, you believe we are going to have a close relationship with the EU, so a deal makes sense, and can be refined later. But the imperial wing believe the backstop is designed by the EU to pin the UK down, and must be rejected 5/
The PM is ultimately on the business wing, but wishes to keep the two wings together, which leads her to ever greater negotiating contortions. And we're back to the tactics. The EU can count, they know the imperial wing doesn't have a majority, so don't expect more concessions 6/
So does the PM stay at the gambling table hoping for a change (from EU or Cabinet) or cut her losses and say this is the best we can get and realistically we're going to have a close relationship because of geography so let's get on with it? 7/
At some point the PM has to come out for her side, otherwise more on both sides will come out against her. But it would be out of keeping with her usual cautious approach. So more likely the losses will keep stacking up, but we'll know more soon... 8/ end
PS doesn't quite fit in the thread, but was amused to see this in the morning's Politico Playbook - a sign that Olly Robbins doesn't wish to be seen as a soft touch in the eyes of the UK media? 
PPS there is an 'imperial' wing to the Labour Party as well, as this tweet shows. But it is much smaller than that of the Conservative Party. Europe and the world has always been a cross-party issue in the UK
