THREAD: SECTORAL DEEP DIVE - TRANSPORT IN 2030
1/ Recently I highlighted key 2030 energy modelling results in the @EU_Commission's new EU 'Long Term Strategy' and did deep dives on Buildings & Industry. Today I take a closer look at the Transport Sector.
1/ Recently I highlighted key 2030 energy modelling results in the @EU_Commission's new EU 'Long Term Strategy' and did deep dives on Buildings & Industry. Today I take a closer look at the Transport Sector.
2/ Transport represents around a third of the final energy consumption in the EU. All sectors have seen emissions reductions since 1990, with the exception of transport, which has increased by nearly +25%. The currently dominant transport technologies rely on oil based fuels. 
3/ Decarbonizing the transport sector will require an integrated approach: 1) increasing vehicle efficiency, 2) promoting low- and zero emission vehicles and infrastructure, 3) fuel switch to alternative and net-zero carbon fuels for transport and 4) electrification of transport.
4/ Direct electrification with green electricity is key, as it is much more efficient than electricity based fuels. One of the key technological developments enabling the electrification of transport is a rapid decline in battery costs, which have come down -80% from 2010-2017.
5/ Next to changes within the transport modes (eg. switch from gas to electric car), we will also need a mobility transition to different modes (eg. from trucks/planes to rail), multi-modal integration, smart shared & autonomous solutions, and behaviour change (eg. less flying).
6/ Greater concentration of people and public infrastructure are key enablers of mobility transition, and cities become key sites and actors of transition through urban planning and infrastructure investment, thereby enabling greener lifestyles that increase quality of life.
7/ A mobility transition away from private car ownership will be more difficult in rural & semi-urban areas as there are often fewer good alternatives due to longer distances and higher costs to offering public transport services. A shift to EVs (shared & individual) will be key.
8/ Mobility transition takes place against the backdrop of rising transport activity. Estimates see a major increase in passenger (+16%), inland freight (+29%), EU & global marine shipping (+21% vs +51%) transport activity from 2015-2030. This makes it an uphill battle.
9/ Let's begin with road transport. Transport emissions are dominated by road transport, which in 2015 made up 73% of overall transport emissions, and 95% when international transport is excluded. Emissions increased steadily 1990-2007, went down 2007-2013, then increased again.
10/ The EU road vehicle fleet is still dominated by the internal combustion engine, with diesel and petrol cars representing far more than 90% of road vehicles in all road vehicle categories. Alternative powertrains only make up a small share, especially in freight transport.
11/ Limited decarbonization has been achieved through biofuels (4% in transport fuels in 2015). In 2015 electricity also played a minor role in transport (1.5%) and of this small share, 96% of electricity consumption was in rail transport vs 2.3% in road transport.
12/ At the end of 2017, there were less than 1000 fuel cell vehicles and only around 738,000 electric cars in the EU (~0.2% of the Union’s car fleet). However, EV growth is picking up. In 2017, five Member States accounted for 80% of electric car sales (DE, UK, FR, SE, NL).
13/ National policy frameworks for the implementation of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive show that electricity is the alternative fuel of choice in most countries with 10 of 28 MS clearly focusing on electro-mobility, but also highlight a risk of a multi-speed EU.
14/ For 2030 modelling for road transport the Commission assumes its own relatively unambitious CO2 standards proposals for cars & trucks, which are partly lower than the positions of Council & Parliament in current negotiations, but also other additional ambitious policies.
15/ The model estimates that these policies will lead to a significant, but conservative increase in alternative drive trains in vehicle stock by 2030. Battery & plug-in hybrid electric vehicles make up the lion's share, while fuel cell vehicles represent only a small share.
16/ Transport also becomes more efficient (partly due to electrification of transport) leading to a slight decline in energy consumption despite growing activity. Meanwhile the % of alternative fuels about doubles with growth coming from electrification, biofuels and natural gas.
17/ Previous EC modelling estimated that electricity as a % of transport energy demand reaches 3-4% overall by 2030, slightly less in road transport. The total stock of electrically chargeable (full electric, plug-in hybrids, fuel cells) cars & vans reaches ~40 million in 2030.
18/ As for fuels, the share of biofuels and gaseous fuels increases somewhat, but not significantly. Moreover, based on 2050 projections, biogas can not be expected to play more than a marginal role and hydrogen, e-gas (PtG) or e-liquids (PtL) do not factor in 2030 due to costs.
19/ Emissions reductions for cars make the largest contribution to overall transport emissions (incl. domestic & int. aviation but excl. int. maritime) declining -19% by 2030 relative to 2005. But emissions still rise +4% vs 1990 due to the rise in the emissions in the 1990s.
20/ Looking closer at aviation, air transport activity including int/extra-EU flights are projected to increase significantly (+43% from 2015-2030), but efficiency also improves (incl. aircraft technology & design, air traffic management & operations, improved occupancy rates).
21/ As a result, the energy intensity of air transport (energy consumption per passenger km) is projected to decrease from 2015-2030 (-25%), but overall energy consumption increases. Moreover, effectively no electric aircraft or meaningful fuel switch materializes by 2030.
22/ As a result, while car emissions actually decline significantly by 2030 due to fuel switch, efficiency and electrification, air aviation emissions increase ~10%. By 2030-2035 emissions from heavy goods vehicles & air transport together even overtake those of passenger cars.
23/ As for marine transport, options for decarbonizing shipping include hull design, power & propulsion, economies of scale, speed, weather routing & scheduling, and fuel switching. Significant improvements in energy intensity of EU int. shipping (-10%: 2015-2030) are projected.
24/ However, due to increased activity, overall fuel consumption, as well as the share of marine diesel oil & natural gas are set to increase in int. maritime transport by 2030. Moreover, switching to low carbon fuels is expected to be marginal, and far from Paris compatible.
25/ As a result, emissions in EU international maritime transport remain relatively stable until 2030, while international shipping at the global level experiences rising or declining emissions, depending on key modelling assumptions.
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