THREAD: AGRICULTURE, WASTE & NON-CO2 EMISSIONS
1/ The last two weeks I unpacked 2030 energy sector results in the @EU_Commission's new EU 'Long Term Strategy' and took a closer look at Buildings, Industry, Transport. Today, I cover what remains.
1/ The last two weeks I unpacked 2030 energy sector results in the @EU_Commission's new EU 'Long Term Strategy' and took a closer look at Buildings, Industry, Transport. Today, I cover what remains.
2/ Energy related emissions account for 79% of EU GHG emissions and includes the production of electricity & heat generation, and fuel combustion in industry, buildings, transport & agriculture. Other GHG emissions come from agriculture, waste & non-energy industy processes. 
3/ Agriculture, Waste and Non-energy Industry also make up the other main sectors in the 'Non-ETS' Sectors outside of the scope of the EU Emissions Trading System, aside from the Transport & Buildings Sectors.
4/ Moreover, together Agriculture, Waste & Industry make up the main non-CO2 emitting sectors. Approximately 18% of the GHGs emitted in the European Union in 2015 were non-CO2 gases. Historically, non-CO2 gases have reduced faster than CO2, but this is not guaranteed in future.
5/ Due to social & technical constraints, non-CO2 emissions (notably in agriculture) are expected to be more difficult to reduce towards zero emissions than CO2 and expected to make up most of the remaining sources of post-2050 EU GHG emissions in case of deep decarbonization.
6/ Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) are the two main gases, responsible for respectively 55% & 32% of the non-CO2 emissions of the EU in 2015. The remaining 13% emissions are comprised of various fluorinated gases (HFC, SF6, NF3, PFC).
7/ These gases have various properties & characteristics, leading to different times of residence in the atmosphere & potentials in term of climate warming. Most HFCs & methane are short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP). CO2, N20, SF6, NF3, some HFCs & PFCs are long-lived (LLCP).
8/ Importantly, both nitrous oxide and methane are also more potent greenhouse gases than CO2. One molecule of methane remains in the atmosphere for a much shorter time (around a decade), but it causes instantaneous radiative forcing an order of magnitude stronger than CO2 (25x).
9/ Achieving the available non-CO2 GHG reduction potential will be important if the aim is to reach zero GHG emissions given that any remaining emissions would need to be offset by CO2 removals from other activities. The challenge is to tackle a very diverse set of emissions.
10/ Agriculture accounted for 11% of EU GHG emissions in 2015. Emissions decreased -20 % from 1990-2013, mainly through the reduction in livestock numbers & overall efficiency improvements in EU agriculture (eg. more efficient use of fertilizers), but have risen since 2014.
11/ Agricultural GHG are mainly nitrous oxide & methane emissions. CO2 makes up only ~2%. Emissions come mainly from the digestion of livestock (esp. cattle and sheep), agricultural soil management (due to use of mineral nitrogen fertilizer), and manure management (15%).
12/ Two basic emission reduction strategies exist on the supply side: 1) Increase productivity in order to use fewer inputs to produce the same output (eg. efficient use of fertiliser or different cattle breeding practices); and 2) deployment of innovative technology & practices.
13/ One Commission model identifies around 130 MtCO2eq mitigation potential in 2050. A separate model estimated similar potentials for 2030. The mitigation options with the highest potential by 2050 are precision farming, livestock breeding, as well as nitrification inhibitors.
14/ On the demand side, consumer preferences also impact agriculture emissions by shifting the types of agricultural production in the EU. Here the two key levers for emissions reductions are: 1) changes in diets (eg. less meat consumption); and 2) a reduction food waste.
15/ Statistics from FAO indicate that a plateau has been reached for total meat consumption per capita in the EU28. Since the 1990s beef consumption in the EU has declined by 31%, while poultry consumption has increased +37%.
16/ In the Commission's Baseline, with current policies in place, projected population stable and no changes in EU diets, the EU’s agriculture emissions are projected to slightly decline until 2030 and then stabilize just over 400 MtCO2eq in 2050.
17/ Five further scenarios were analysed with variation in the consumption of various meat, milk & egg products, and a reduction of food waste by half in all EU Member States. The results show these possible shifts in diet could significantly further reduce emissions.
18/ The last sector to cover is waste, which accounted for 3% of EU GHG emissions in 2015. Emissions from waste decreased by 42 % between 1990-2015. In sectors other than agriculture, the waste sector & F-Gases shows the largest potential to reduce the emissions of non-CO2 gases.
19/ Mitigation strategies in Waste include: 1) reducing landfill emissions, 2) preventing waste, & 3) recycling. Better waste management avoids emissions in other sectors of the economy, and circular economy measures prevent waste and support recycling, e.g. better product design
20/ Concerning F-gases, current legislation will already go a long way towards reducing emissions by 2050. Improvement in refrigeration & AC technologies have by far the greatest potential. For reaching net-zero technical solutions exist, but investment signals are needed.
21/ Non-CO2 emissions (esp. methane) also play a smaller, but significant role in the energy sector. These emissions are largely linked to fuel combustion, fugitive emissions from the gas transmission and distribution system, and emissions from fossil fuel extraction activities.
22/ The main methane sources are fugitive emissions, which can be largely eliminated through decreased fuel consumption and increased application of technological mitigation options (eg. better monitoring, detection and maintenance in the gas network to prevent leaks).
23/ Finally, while untreated livestock manure emits methane & nitrous oxide, manure can also be transformed/valorised into biogas for renewable energy use through a process called anaerobic digestion, or upgraded still to biomethane to be used like regular fossil natural gas.
24/ As previously highlighted, Commission modelling estimates the whole consumption of biogas could increase from 16 Mtoe in 2015 to ~30 Mtoe in 2030, and 45-79 Mtoe in 2050. There is significant take-up of anaerobic digestion in the baseline projections.
25/ An analysis of renewable methane potentials by ICCT also finds that biogas from livestock manure is the form of renewable methane with the greatest climate benefits and greatest economic potential, especially where produced on farm to generate electricity or heat.
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