Thread by @CoppetainPU

Someone asked me to comment on the mentions of the WTO in the MPs’ letter, so here goes

First a question. R in ERG = “research”, right?

1/11

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Can the UK create its “tariff schedules” of WTO commitments without the EU? For the most part probably yes, and the EU wouldn’t be interested (more on what that means below)

But, a big but …

2/11

The commitment include tariff quotas. 3rd countries (eg NZ, Australia, US, Brazil, etc) are concerned about the combined access to post-Brexit UK and EU27 tariff quotas. They want to negotiate with both. The talks can’t be split

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/pri…

3/11

The MPs’ use of “tariff schedules” is odd. In the WTO, it’s “goods schedules”, including commitments on farm subsidies.

The present EU28’s entitlement will be split between the UK & EU27. Keeping those talks apart will be impossible too

4/11

Why wouldd the UK want to change its tariff commitments significantly? That’s complicated process possibly bringing in the whole WTO membership even if the tariffs are lowered.

For #PreferenceErosion at least

5/11

Countries facing @PreferenceErosion would want to negotiate significant cuts in WTO tariff commitments: i.e. poorer countries with lower-duty/duty-free access to EU markets would lose the advantage.

6/11

The UK can set lower tariffs without changing its WTO commitments

The schedules set ceilings on tariffs. Countries are free to apply lower tariffs if they want

That would still mean #PreferenceErosion but the UK wouldn’t have to negotiate

7/11

It’s unclear why the MPs refer to tariff quotas in the bullet point on UK free trade agreements with other countries.

It’s not part of the UK-EU agreement on tariff quotas. That only applies to the tariff quotas in the WTO commitments

8/11

Any implementation period must be based on WTO principles. That goes without saying. Not only GATT (goods) Article 24 but also GATS (services, not mentioned directly at all) Article 5.

9/11

Mention of GATT Art24(7)b? If it applies to UK trade deals with others it also applies to a UK-EU agreement.

Strictly speaking = all those deals should be done before the interim period starts in March 2019. Clearly impossible.

10/11

Others can discuss implications of regulatory divergence from the EU and legal aspects

Just two more observations

1. Services are not mentioned specifically at all.

2. Nor is the Irish border, which will be impacted by this

11/11

I meant to add: These proposals badly need a proper impact assessment of effects in general and winners and losers in particular

Also h/t @Kurako76