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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Well, this is blunt from a writer who has spent some time to understand the issues around the Brexit including on trade and Northern Ireland. And the verdict, that the moment of truth on a Customs Union is coming.
If anything @pmdfoster underplays the issue. A UK in a Customs Union, with only limited control of our trade policy, is not a comfortable place to be. A UK outside a Customs Union means a border in the Irish Sea or island of Ireland, until other solutions exist.
Which of course explains the desperate attempts to say the border is not a problem, it is exaggerated or there are solutions. I suspect the PM is sitting on detailed intelligence reports to say there are real security concerns.
As for the Ireland border solutions, they are partial technology / process helps, far from being comprehensive enough to substitute what happens at a border. So now make your unenviable choice.
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Would it surprise you considerably that this Juncker / Tusk letter appears to change nothing? consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
Made very clear up front - we are not in a position to make changes... well we're not going to tell you otherwise
Temporarily could still mean 10 years, or probably 50. And the political declaration being of the same package doesn't mean much when it it still "of a different nature"
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Questioning common Brexit wisdom... If MPs supported the Norway option I think the Withdrawal Agreement will actually need substantial attention with particular reference to the numerous mentions of transition period
Take for example Article 128 Paragraph 5 which as I'm sure you're all aware deals with UK representation at expert meetings during the transition period. This would not be the right formulation for an EEA-bound country.
I don't think anyone has fully read and digested the Withdrawal Agreement in full, which should worry people more than it appears to. See also my earlier thought that the Irish backstop may be unimplementable
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Monday morning Brexit digest, and we start with the not-at-all surprising news of a cross-party group of MPs saying if the PM cannot find a consensus then it should fall to a group of MPs
This is a quite obvious development in a situation where there is no Parliamentary confidence in either the Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition, and both are failing to play their roles as laid down in the constitution. And it has been building.
The PM has if anything devalued her position further this morning by making a comparison to the Welsh referendum - where she personally opposed the outcome and voted against it. Off the scale incompetence....
Read 7 tweets

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Anonymous🏴
@YourAnonCentral
Theresa May can't go forward or backward. UK parliament ready to take her down, but she's been the dead wolf since day 1 and she's still here. People without parliamentary democracies don't understand the drama & entertainment they are missing. #BrexitVote
"The vote could be delayed until the day before UK falls out of the EU with no deal." Say what you will about Theresa May, she has created a world where women no longer have to try harder than men, where even the most mediocre woman can hold high office. 🤣
Here's Jacob Rees-Mogg moaning about people "dusting down precedents from the 1860s." 🤣🤣 #TheresaMay #BrexitShambles #BrexitVote
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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James Barisic 🇪🇺 #FBPE
@jamesmb
Right. I'm ready to call it! The UK government is aiming for the #Brexit negotiations to lead to:

- A Norway deal
- A 'Norway' v '#Remain' referendum.

I'll show my working below!

#stopbrexit #peoplesvote
Why Norway?

Well, the answer to that lies on the island of #Ireland. Due to the GFA, there are not many ways of squaring the circle of having the hard border that is required by the WTO, Northern Ireland remaining in the UK and the UK being outside the customs union.
So the options faced by HMG are:

1 - call a border poll and let Northern Ireland and the Republic reunite as a single entity. While the Conservatives are nominally the Conservative & Unionist Party, there are many who would not share a tear at the loss of NI....
Read 12 tweets
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Richard Broughton
@Richard_Ampere
Thread: How are UK online news outlets covering #Brexit in 2018? More analysis, with more data and charts!

Part 4: **Is news outlets’ focus on abstract concepts a reason voter opinions are slow to shift?**

(AKA ‘Who cares about Brexit’s impact on the media industry anyway’)
Usual caveats apply.

For previous pieces, see:
I also did an analytical piece on whether it was plausible that overspending swung the EU referendum result – if you’re interested, it’s here:

TLDR – the answer is “it’s certainly possible”
Read 21 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
#Brexit as a concept is increasingly drifting from having anything whatsoever to do with the mechanics of leaving the EU. It is now primarily a culture war and both sides will totally ignore the details except for when they are temporarily convenient.
The consequence of this is that our future relationship with the EU will be just as readily ignored as our activities as a member. They said Brexit would make us isolated, self absorbed and insular but it seems that was always the case and there are no signs of that changing.
As ever the details will be delegated to officials and civil servants while our establishment politics drifts further into its cycle of decline, unable to usefully influence external events making us entirely passive and reactive to events rather than self-interestedly engaged.
Read 17 tweets
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Europarl UK
@EPinUK
Just a reminder: the European Parliament has so far commissioned from experts dozens of impact assessments or studies on #Brexit in 14 broad fields. They don't necessarily constitute the EP's official position but are all free & available here: europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/… Thread 1/6
They include studies on the areas in which the European Parliament has set red lines for its approval of any Article 50 deal, such as #citizensrights europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes… & the effect of #Brexit on the #peaceprocess in Northern Ireland europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes… 2/6
The studies on #Brexit also cover other critical topics such as the internal market and #consumerprotection europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes… and #financialservices europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes… 3/6
Read 6 tweets

Trending hashtags

#PCPEU #border #Brexit #consumerprotection #brexit #borderpoll #environment #citizensrights #TransnationalLists #GE2017 #ChlorineChicken #BBCQT #Irexit #BrexitVote #trade #BDK18 #EPonBrexit #BrexitDK #PublicHealth #livestream #SingleMarket #StopBrexit #Remain #PeoplesVote #Border

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