, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
By a pretty overwhelming margin you believe the PM is bluffing when she talks about the Brexit deal sorting out the future relationship, for the purpose of not splitting the Conservative Party. A couple of implications follow...
First, Conservatives of both wings have spotted that she is bluffing, but to admit this would be to admit trying to mislead Parliament, so she can't, the pretense must be maintained even when it is clearly just that
Given the PM has said the Political Declaration is the future deal she doesn't really want to see that changed on the basis it is not binding. Hence not going along with any suggestions of a customs union - doesn't fit the bluff...
However given no-deal and no-Brexit divide the Conservative Party, this means it has to be an unchanged deal (given we know the EU will not back down on the backstop). No-deal is a further bluff to keep the ERG on board.
So, this is all speculative, but it seems to follow that for the PM it is simply a matter of running down the clock until she gets a vote in favour of her agreement - which saves her face and minimises the Conservative Party split.
Problem is whether she can ever get sufficient votes, also that Brexit continues to overshadow everything, but this then is the strategy. Put in this way I continue to think the chances of her deal passing have been under-estimated. /end
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