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So the President's just seen the headlines on yesterday's hearing where his Intelligence Chiefs contradicted him.
Now he's fuming. And wrong. Why?
As Lauryn Hill would say:
Girlfriend, let me break it down for you again...
<thread>
Now he's fuming. And wrong. Why?
As Lauryn Hill would say:
Girlfriend, let me break it down for you again...
<thread>
1) We all agree that Iran is a threat to the region, possibly the world. They aren't great to their people. They send proxies to destabilize neighboring countries. Among the proxies are Hezbollah & Hamas, which are actual terrorist groups. Also, Iran threatens Israel.
2) All of this would have been made worse if Iran had acquired a nuclear weapons capability, complete with delivery system. Which is why preventing them from doing so has been a priority of both Republican and Democratic Presidents.
3) After the disastrous Iraq war (brought to you by Bolton & his cronies), going to war in Iran would have been deadly for American troops, incredibly costly, and more difficult even than Iraq. So military strikes are not a great option to stop Iran.
4) This is why the Obama Administration, Congress, and our allies (including China and Russia) used crippling sanctions to force Iran to the negotiating table for an Iran deal to freeze, and in many places roll back their nuclear weapons program.
5) This took the time it would take Iran to go from where they were in development to a functioning nuclear bomb from months (at the start of the negotiation) to over a year (under the deal). And Iran promised that it would never pursue a nuclear weapon.
6) This deal required the US and our allies lift the sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran's compliance. Iran's choice was they could have an economy or a bomb, but not both. (As an aside, North Korea has the same choice. They chose a bomb not an economy).
7) The deal required Iran to submit to international inspectors to verify what they were doing. In the intelligence world this is a big deal, because you want to be able to get in there and see for yourself, not just trust Iran, who has a history of clandestine development.
8) Was the deal perfect?
No. It did not deal with all of Iran's bad actions, only the most important one -- the nuclear weapons. Iran is still using proxies, causing problems for its neighbors, treating its people badly.
No. It did not deal with all of Iran's bad actions, only the most important one -- the nuclear weapons. Iran is still using proxies, causing problems for its neighbors, treating its people badly.
9) But the deal, by bringing the global community together to put pressure on Iran including purchasers of Iranian oil, was a huge diplomatic achievement. And US leadership made that happen.
10) So when Trump ran around yelling "bad deal!!" He was echoing those naysayers of the deal, including some of our allies in the region who suffer most under the existing bad actions from Iran. They were all measuring the deal from perfect, not from the then extant status quo.
11) When Trump pulled out of the deal that the US had so painstakingly negotiated, he was breaking America's promise. And it was a huge loss of credibility to American leadership, and made our European allies doubt our word.
12) Which is why the Europeans are working so hard with Iran to salvage the deal and not reimpose sanctions. They recognize that keeping a nuclear weapon out of Iran's hands is still an important priority and coercion is unlikely to work again if this deal falls apart.
13) Trump's first national security cabinet knew this. It's why Mattis, McMaster, and Tillerson were working so hard to keep the US in the deal. But Bolton's never liked the deal, and always doubted Iran, and wants military intervention to stop it.
14) So yesterday's testimony, when his hand-picked director of the CIA, Gina Haspel, testified that they still view Iran as in technical compliance with the deal, was in direct contradiction to Trump and Bolton's view that the deal was bad & Iran's cheating would be inevitable.
15) This testimony should have come as no surprise to Trump. Mattis was telling him. Europeans say it at every gathering of NATO or G-20, or bilateral meeting. The IAEA has been reporting it. It's what the intelligence agencies put in their briefings over and over.
16) The World Wide Threats hearing & assessment represents the collective judgement of the intelligence agencies. It's what they put in the President's daily intelligence briefs. It's what they tell cabinet officials. It's what they use to develop policy options.
17) At this point, the President's refusal to believe his intelligence community is a willful denial of the facts. There was no papering over the differences between what the IC observes and what the President says. And the President is not operating in the real world.
18) But this isn't the only place where the IC disagrees with the President. Here are others:
- ISIS is not defeated
-Russia interfered in our election & will do so again
-North Korea has not done anything to denuclearize
-There's no border crisis
- ISIS is not defeated
-Russia interfered in our election & will do so again
-North Korea has not done anything to denuclearize
-There's no border crisis
19) So either Trump hears it and doesn't want to believe it, or his National Security Advisor, Bolton, is constructing an alternate reality to lead the President to the conclusions that Bolton wants... which is war everywhere.
20) Here's your silver lining: The IC is refusing to be politicized & bend to the wishes of this President. They're reporting the truth as they see it, under very difficult circumstances. This is unlike before the Iraq War. And for this we should give thanks. <mic drop>
