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1) So, let me see if I can break this down in a manner worthy of The Wictor himself.
2) Syria's civil war is in its endgame right now. After the battle at Deir Ezzor, in which a platoon of US Special Forces and Marines with air support annihilated a battalion of 500 Russians parading as Assad regime mercenaries, it was made clear the US didn't NEED to invade.
3) Right now the forces present within Syria outside of the US are basically kids in a sandbox, with a pair of disgruntled looking adults with a foot on the edge making sure everyone plays nice. The other adult? Israel.
4) Yeah, Israel. Russia has been 'giving' Israel free reign over the Syrian airspace to bomb Iranian targets. By giving, of course, I mean Russia's SAM technology can't actually do fuck all against Israel's air force.
5) Go ahead, look it up, I'll wait. How many Israeli jets have gotten shot down? One, which Syria had to fire FUCKING EVERYTHING AT ONCE to knock down, and THAT only worked because the jet was on a return flight from a successful strike too high in the air to avoid being shot at.
6) Since then, nothing. See, that's what Russia is trying to avoid right now, the blatant demonstrable fact that their 'navy' is a couple destroyers and tugboats, their air defense is useless, and their ground forces are a paper tiger.
7) Iran, on the other hand, is no better, their forces in the region are basically a bunch of cannon fodder militias. The Russians, the Iranians, and even the Syrians weren't doing any REAL combat in Syria for years. They mostly just let ISIS holdouts run around free.
8) So, you have the local players, basically Assad, the YPG, and the SDF. You have the regional influencers, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Then you have the actual adults with muscle, Israel and the US.
9) Israel and the US have made it clear that if they don't like the outcome, they can and will run roughshod over the regional influencers, as none of them hold a candle in military force. Trump is taking a backseat and letting Israel set the terms.
10) Israel wants a secular government in place, preferably one that won't foster further terrorist groups on Israel's border. Out of the regional players, that means Iran, Russia, and Turkey have to figure out whether they want a secular or religious government in place in Syria.
11) Now, this is where things get interesting. Russia values saving face over actual success. They do NOT want to be embarrassed by Israel driving them out of the region with a severe asswhipping.
12) Yeah, I'm not kidding, I think Israel would absolutely stomp Russia's shit in if it came to a fight. And Russia knows that too. Russia is the JUNIOR partner in these negotiations, being allowed in exchange for their cooperation to act like a MAJOR partner.
13) Iran, on the other hand, wants a religious government, and they neither have a major power backing them now or the power on their own to get what they want. But, they aren't withdrawing. So what's left to do?
14) Well, why else would Russia start shooting at their former Iranian allies?
This is what these idiots in the media and the Dems don't understand.
Russia doesn't control the United States.
In Syria, the US and Israel control Russia.
/end
This is what these idiots in the media and the Dems don't understand.
Russia doesn't control the United States.
In Syria, the US and Israel control Russia.
/end
