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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
NEW ANALYSIS OF TARIFFS

“Measuring Trump’s 2018 Trade Protection: Five (5!) Takeaways”

My latest, with @EvaYZhang

Read it here 👉🏾 piie.com/blogs/trade-in…

HELP US name our new TARIFF data visualization

Trump’s Tariffs as a Teddy Bear? Snowman? ...
👇🏾 🙄
Here's another chart from this same piece.

As a share of their total exports to US, Trump's tariffs are hitting harder the “strongman”- type countries led by the type of people Trump appears to admire (Xi, Putin, Erdogan, Bolsonaro)

piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
One more chart from this new analysis

Trump's tariffs are targeting parts and components, making US companies less competitive globally.

Of all US imports of intermediate inputs, 20% of them are now hit being hit by these special tariffs.

piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
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More from @ChadBown see all

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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1/
Is Trump planning to increase the MFN tariff for autos above 2.5%?

(This is a SEPARATE issue from the USMCA autos 232 side letter)

So, Annex 2-C spells out what happens if US increases the tariff on "non-conforming" autos on Mexico above 2.5%, the current MFN rate...
👇🏾
2/
This is relevant because the new USMCA auto "rules of origin" (75% regional content, $16 wage provision, etc) make it costlier for Mexican-assembled vehicles to comply...

...and some companies may prefer not to comply and just pay the MFN tariff.

And Trump doesn't want that
3/
Annex 2-C says, even if the US raises the MFN rate above 2.5% (eg, if USTR legally negotiates an MFN tariff increase under GATT Article XXVIII)...

...Mexican cars will qualify for the 2.5% ***IF*** they continue to satisfy the **OLD** rules of origin of the original NAFTA
Read 7 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1/
OK, I am going to try to explain this potential tariff on "non-conforming" autos (in a Tweet)

Caveat: THIS. IS. WEIRD.

So Trump wants to impose new NAFTA rules of origin for autos

His new rules: To receive 0 tariff under NAFTA, car makers have to meet X, Y, Z criterion
2/ PROBLEM

These X, Y, Z criterion are very costly for car makers to meet.

They are so costly. in fact, the companies might decide the NAFTA tariff preference is not worth it.
3/

Instead, their option is to produce the car so it would be "non-conforming" to the new rules.

In that case, they choose to pay the normal, MFN tariff of 2.5%. They don't benefit from NAFTA.

But that also thwarts Trump's plan to get companies to meet the X, Y, Z criterion.
Read 10 tweets
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Chad P. Bown
@ChadBown
1/
Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs are Counterproductive. Here are 5 **More** Things you Need to Know.

(with charts)

My latest

And thread also contains some NEW data facts...

piie.com/blogs/trade-in…
2/
DEFINITION: I define “steel” and “aluminum” just as Trump did in the Section 232 investigations.

If Trump imposes tariffs on steel of 25% and aluminum of 10% on imports from all sources, then 100% of those product imports will be subject to special tariffs.

So what's new?
3/
What is the case historically?

I looked at data

#1 Steel has been the largest user of special protection for decades

• More than 60% of US imports of steel are **already** covered by previously-imposed special protection
• Ie, antidumping and countervailing duties
Read 14 tweets

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