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Philip Swift
@PositiveCrypto
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. So much bullish hopium on my twitter feed today, incredible scenes. I am bullish short term but to keep some perspective...
2. NVT Signal is continuing to show a very similar pattern play out with the previous cycle. One final spike up before capitulation.
3. These remain my scenario options for the spike up. See previous tweets for the importance of these moving averages in this bear market.
4. Not only are we not entering the bull market yet, but we are also further away from it now than we were at this point in the previous cycle. Network volume ascent to healthy levels is slower and has further to go this time around.
5. This is supported by @kenoshaking's Delta cap (Realised Cap - Average Cap) still being a significant distance away from Average cap (Moving Av of Mkt Cap). These will need to be in much closer proximity than they are now to indicate the start of the next bull run.
6. I am very happy taking short term long trades, but under no illusions about how long this bear market will last. At this rate, at least until Q1 2020.
Stay safe out there 👊
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PositiveCrypto
@PositiveCrypto
1/ Top quality analysis as always from @MustStopMurad... and here is some additional TA/FA thoughts on why I believe this scenario will likely play out...
2/ If we do bounce up price would also need to get past these bear market dominating moving averages (112, 128) which I don't think it will be able to so it will get stuck around that $4300 area. A great shorting opportunity if we get to them...
3/ ...because we are due to drop down fairly soon. One of many reasons is this rhyming pattern we see on NVT Signal, which is created by the market psychology of investors vs. traders. It looks like the area of support/resistance may soon break.
Read 4 tweets
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PositiveCrypto
@PositiveCrypto
1/ We are due a decent BTC price bounce here. @woonomic NVT Signal has never gone straight from +150 highs down to c.50 capitulation. We have entered an area of support and resistance. Likely to consolidate on NVT Signal before final move down to c.50 in early 2019.
2/ May feel optimistic at this point, but with every single bounce in this bear market price has hit one of these moving averages
-112 MA (blue)
-128 MA (orange)
-195 MA (black)
Possible we rally and hit one of these before they push price back down to capitulation early 2019.
3/ Using @PNFtarget Gaussian Trendlines we can see that this would align with moving back to the lower trendline (green), v.possible given how oversold we’ve been here. @kenoshaking did v.smart analysis using Gauss to show where final capitulation could be.
Read 5 tweets
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PositiveCrypto
@PositiveCrypto
@ToneVays @novogratz Hi Tone, I’m with you that BTC going down v.soon, to be fair to @novogratz, he was referencing the BGCI, index of top10 crypto, rather than BTC price. Actually think he is correct that top10 crypto bounce here – but the #1, Bitcoin, actually falls. Just like we saw in Aug 2014.
@ToneVays @novogratz Given this is the case I'm with @woonomic, we just bounced on NVT Signal but once that support line breaks 150,we go down. Building on @woonomic great analysis, there are also a couple of other key indicators that will help optimise BTC investment timing during the bear market..
@ToneVays @novogratz @woonomic 2/Simplest option would be to invest 100% into BTC when NVT Signal is below 50 and turns up. From investment (not trading) pov though there are some issues with pulling trigger here. The first is that NVT Signal is experimental, but more important from investment point of view...
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