Thread by @MLiebreich

The climate détente of the past decade (whereby action is to be energetically pursued, but only if it doesn’t jeopardize the recovery from the great recession, upend the neoliberal economic model, or damage any powerful incumbents) is fracturing. 
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The world of 2019 is not the world of 2009: 1) We know far more hard climate science; 2) In 2009 it was still plausible to claim there were no alternatives to fossil fuels; 3) A decade after the financial crisis, many are still struggling economically.
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The #ClimateStrike movement, sparked by the preternaturally determined 16-year-old Greta Thunberg, has now spread to 14 countries. Anyone who thinks it will fizzle out any time soon has forgotten what it is to be young.
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Then theres @AOC's #GND. Despite a botched launch – a draft FAQ talked about getting rid of “farting cows and airplanes” – 88 House Representatives have already declared support, as have all the Democrat Presidential candidates who have declared so far.
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Polling shows the #GND is resonating strongly, particularly young voters. There is clearly a constituency for something grandiose and inspirational, emphasizing purpose not policy, and scale not detail. Let’s take a look at it.
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1) Engineering. In terms of shifting the needle on emissions, the #GND is an huge over-reach. It focuses mainly on 100% clean power through renewables, plus EVs, ignores nuclear, and is weak on heat, industry, agriculture, long-distance freight & aviation.
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2) Costs. Back of envelope, the #GND's would require capital spend of ~$1tr/year: $300bn for clean power, $260bn for home efficiency, $200bn for transport, $120bn to nudge industry, $50bn for agriculture, $50bn for water, air, remediation and resilience.
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My $1tr figure for the annual capital cost of the #GND is very much back-of-envelope, because the Resolution is a million miles from a costed plan. But it's hard to see a smaller figure, and it does not include social elements like healthcare, training and affordable housing.

3) Finance. On the surface there is no a priori reason why the #GND could not be financed. US households have enough savings, $109tr, up from $60tr in 2009. Investing sub-10% of the nation's savings to solve climate and pollution looks like a good deal!
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Two caveats. 1) The spend would have to be structured as an investment, ie to provide a risk-adjusted return to the provider of capital. 2) The real problem is that $1tr/year of #GND capex
would absorb over 5% of US GDP. Something would have to give.
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Of course proponents of Modern Monetary Theory #MMT like @StephanieKelton say the Government can just print the money without creating inflation. They are wrong: the US economy is already 0.5% above its long-run potential, you can't just add 5% demand.
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4) International. Here the #GND is a shocker: No mention of Paris; no mention of climate finance; border adjustments "to stop the transfer of jobs and pollution overseas and to grow domestic manufacturing in the US." Trumpism with Climate Characteristics!
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5) Politics. Supporters and opponents of the #GND are playing a high-stakes game. Supporters risk giving away political hostages, and spurring conflict by trying to drive Democrats left. Republicans risk being abandoned by voters, especially young ones.
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I like that #GND is an unashamed call for a climate-compatible industrial policy, and that it demands clean air, clean water and protection of ecosystems. I like the emphasis on inclusive governance. These are things I've written about, they are essential.
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It is when the GND spirals into a political manifesto for redistribution of value and power in US society - linking healthcare, job guarantees, housing, unionization, public ownership, etc, to climate action - that it becomes impossible for me to support.
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Note: Although I could not vote for the #GND, I would not vote against it either. The debate it is spurring about the urgency of climate action is just too important for it to be put back in the box. It's just a non-binding Resolution, let it pass with loads of abstentions!

Finally. As Lenin said, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” After a decade of post-Copenhagen consensus, the 88 weeks through to the 2020 U.S. elections may well set the climate tone for decades to come.
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Postscript.

https://twitter.com/MLiebreich/status/1100890910911590401