Thread by @MLiebreich

So much to enjoy in this long 1958 Fortune story "The Highway Billions", about the U.S.'s great interstate building binge. It's a Sunday must-read in the light of the current debate about the green new deal.
amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2011/0…

"The new national highway program has been proclaimed “the greatest public-works program in the history of the world,” yet it has been undertaken without partisan dispute."

Wow - those were the days, eh?!

"Within the span of a single generation, the the 41,000-mile Interstate network will cost some $40bn, bringing the total spend to enlarge, improve, and maintain roads to over $100bn."

That's around $1 tr in today's money. Building the same thing today would cost 10x as much.

"Like better schools, it is regarded as a thoroughly good, nonpolitical program that everybody will support and that will clear up this traffic mess once and for all, it is ardently hoped."

How'd that work out?

"Is the program too big? No one disputes our ability to build $40 billion worth of highways, but many are beginning to wonder if the highway program will not drain off money from other, and equally urgent, needs."

Thought of throwing in those other needs and calling it a #GND?

"Is such a public-works program an anti-recession measure? Recent events have cast doubt on the old assumption that a backlog of public-works projects could help take up the slack in poor times."

Turns out huge, inflexible programmes do not lend themselves to Keynsian tweaking.

"Will the highway program further extend the power of the federal government?"

That be a yes.

"Is there a chance the program is building for obsolescence? A few imaginative critics believe that it has not anticipated developments in aviation which may replace trucks with giant freight planes and passenger cars with vertical takeoff aircraft."

Air freight! Flying cars!

"Until recently the U.S. was spending less proportionately on new highway plant than in Model T days. Today [1958] the total is only approaching the 1930 rate, which was 1.7% of G.N.P."

Remember, energy, infra, transport spend in the #GND is ~5% of GDP. about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich…

"In theory, then, the highway program could be self-sufficient."

Right.

"Is national security a beneficiary? An important selling point for the Interstate was its indispensability for defense, both as an internal military line of communications and as a channel for evacuating cities in time of atomic attack."

Always sell the military angle! #GND

"The Interstate System is going to cost a great deal more than was originally estimated... Congress had no choice but to beef up appropriations...Future appropriations will have to be jumped even more if the program is to keep to schedule..."

Big projects have cost over-runs?

"The country has all together more than three million miles of [local and urban] roads and streets. The consequences of their neglect would be that traffic would pour in greater and greater volume on spacious superhighways only to join the jam on local thoroughfares."

Yup.

"As in every engineering field, there has been much hand wringing over the shortage of engineers in highway work. In the era of rocketry and atomics, other branches of engineering seem far more exciting."

A shame "atomics" is not attracting the same talent in 2019 as 1958.

"By feeding data on weight and stress requirements into an “educated” computer, one man can obtain the design characteristics for a bridge or interchange in one hour; formerly it took as much as 50 man-hours to do the work."

Machine learning!

"Small radio transmitters at the roadside to broadcast information about obstructions, curves, or turnoffs to passing cars. Tests are being made with radar linked to a beep signal that warns the driver, in conditions of poor visibility, that there is an obstruction in his path."

"Still in the dream stage, but not counted as impossible, is a magnetic cable that would guide the car while the driver relaxes and enjoys the scenery — if there is any scenery left to enjoy."

Self-driving cars!

"Someday, perhaps about the time this program is completed, Americans may draw a breath and reflect whether it is worthwhile to expend so much national energy on this kind of transportation. But there’s no sign of such a revolution yet."

No comment. That's all from 1958, folks!