Thread by @pmdfoster

The #Article50 extension conundrum facing the European Union is going to be nasty - whichever way #MV3 breaks next week. Some quick thoughts after chats.

1/Thread

Whichever way the result goes, the likelihood is that it will be close.

A narrow victory.

A narrow loss.

Both are a nightmare for the EU side as they ponder an extension. /2

First, a narrow win.

This falls short of the 'stable majority' EU been demanding and exposes them to the risk it all breaks down after fact.

In that scenario a 3 month extension - for the 'legals' as @simoncoveney - opens door a collapse and an accidental 'no deal' /3

@simoncoveney One 'fix' some are mooting is what you might call a 'flextension', where UK gets three months, but if it fails, that extends to 9 months, but of course the extension would end as soon as a deal was passed.

This is obviously not without issues... /4

@simoncoveney One is A50 can't be extended in an open-ended way (or its becoming de facto end state), so need fixed date.

Therefore this may be a cosmetic distinction (so its really 9 months, with a stepping-stone for 3, and presumption that it's 3) but allows both sides to show intent. /5

@simoncoveney The second, obviously is the EU election question and the farcical situation of UK having to hold elections to sit in the European Parliament for six months. But the EU are serious about functioning of institutions not being effected. /6

@simoncoveney So might a UK commitment to legislate for EU elections in the event it over-runs work as a fix for that?

At some level, the EU needs to protect itself from risk of break down in UK - and as Tusk says a flat extension to June 30 doesn't do that. /7

@simoncoveney For this reason a longer extension (by this agree with @AlbertoNardelli that I hear 9 months, talk of 21 months is just designed to help May get MV3 over line) seems to be increasing preference of EU side, though clearly there is a breadth of opinion out there. /8

@simoncoveney @AlbertoNardelli One other thought, as fix to the election issue in that nine-month scenario, is whether the European Parliament doesn't sit until the end of the year (given that it'll probably take that long to find new Commission president) and that avoids constitutionality questions. /9

@simoncoveney @AlbertoNardelli But what about scenario two: a narrow loss for MV3, and the tantalising prospect of MV4...

@theresa_may goes to EUCO and says she needs one more heave, one more push... /10

@simoncoveney @AlbertoNardelli @theresa_may Agree with @Mij_Europe this morning that leaders deeply unlikely to offer more concessions. Never say never, but the deal is the deal I think. So what then? /11

@simoncoveney @AlbertoNardelli @theresa_may @Mij_Europe Is it possible that EU leaders set out the parameters of extension as noted above (or somesuch, not clear right now where they'll be by next week) and leave them on the table...because May hasn't formally requested the extension? /12

@simoncoveney @AlbertoNardelli @theresa_may @Mij_Europe Then we head to MV4, with terms of long extension on the table, including onerous terms about UK giving up voting rights on all legislation affecting the Union (so pretty much all of it) and crunchtime.

May heaves MV4 over the line. Requests the extension, which then kicks in/13

@simoncoveney @AlbertoNardelli @theresa_may @Mij_Europe There is, as @AlbertoNardelli reported, a much harsher version of that, which is 'no extension without clarification' position from the EU - but in real world, do Macron/Rutte/Merkel risk being blamed for a no deal? Consensus seems to be not. /14

@simoncoveney @AlbertoNardelli @theresa_may @Mij_Europe In any event, it seems to me, that whichever way it breaks next week, it's gonna be ticklish. Very ticklish indeed. 15/ENDS