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The EU is focusing down on its choices for #Article50 extension - but that could create a serious potential for a 'no deal' cliff-edge at end of June. Bear with me. 1/Thread
The EU says it will be "legally unstable" if UK doesn't hold elections/have MEPs.
So that means if we want a long extension, we need to commit to hold EP elections on May 23. That means legislating in UK in April.
This cd put some heat on ERG/Brexiteers to back May deal. BUT/2
So that means if we want a long extension, we need to commit to hold EP elections on May 23. That means legislating in UK in April.
This cd put some heat on ERG/Brexiteers to back May deal. BUT/2
It could also mean that IF May opts for short extension (to June 30) and we go past that April deadline, then May 23 elctions without participating, then there is NO WAY BACK. Eeek.
Becuase if we get to June 29, and haven't held elections, then (on this basis) that's it. /3
Becuase if we get to June 29, and haven't held elections, then (on this basis) that's it. /3
So imagine this.
May wins MV3, with reluctant ERG votes, by a small margin. Asks for June 30 extension for paperwork to be completed.
Then the ERG revokes support..../4
May wins MV3, with reluctant ERG votes, by a small margin. Asks for June 30 extension for paperwork to be completed.
Then the ERG revokes support..../4
The UK has not held EU elections. Therefore, at end of June 30....it's "sorry, we cannot render the EU unstable"...it's No Deal.
Mmmmm....this is when I start to wonder. How much of this is kidology? /5
Mmmmm....this is when I start to wonder. How much of this is kidology? /5
Because if the EU is really sticking to this then even revoking on June 30 is not possible (even tho ECJ gives us that unilateral right).
This is why I am told @MichelBarnier was urging EU ambos tonight not to grant a short extension beyond May 23 /6
This is why I am told @MichelBarnier was urging EU ambos tonight not to grant a short extension beyond May 23 /6
@MichelBarnier Which makes me wonder, if the UK did want to revoke/seek longer extension and went to leaders and said, 'sorry, we sincerely meant to leave but these ERG types have bogged it all up"....would the really stand by and let the bus go off the cliff? /7
@MichelBarnier OR would they - if the UK agreed expeditiously to hold elections and we presented clear reason (election, 2nd ref etc) say 'OK, as long as u hold elections ASAP'.
No certainty, but there is a certain amount of posturing going on here. /8
No certainty, but there is a certain amount of posturing going on here. /8
@MichelBarnier I understand some larger MS (including Germany) were arguing for some flexibility tonight for the reasons stated above.
Tho a second source says it was the "least favoured" option (a flextension)..../9
Tho a second source says it was the "least favoured" option (a flextension)..../9
@MichelBarnier But in summary, the EU needs to think hard before boxing itself into a cul-de-sac.
Right. End of long week. Happy weekend all. At risk of culturally insenstive reference, we await white smoke from DUP talks...I'm having a drink in the meantime.
ENDS
Right. End of long week. Happy weekend all. At risk of culturally insenstive reference, we await white smoke from DUP talks...I'm having a drink in the meantime.
ENDS
