Thread by @investing_panda

Has Doordash really overtaken $GRUB & Ubereats, per this @FortuneMagazine piece? "Though DoorDash is top when it comes to consumer $; it trails Uber Eats in total # transactions."
IMO, data seems suspect due to my informal polling.
#delivery $uber

1. According to bit.ly/2WjB5ZY @jonathanmaze, $GRUB is still top
2. Restaurant give delivery co too much power. Contrasts $GRUB & $UBER mentions vs no mentions of $SYY Sysco
3. Shouldn't $10B delivery rev be / by 15% take to get correct rev comparisons w/ restaurant

1. Delivery attracts new customer for restaurants $MCD: 70% of delivery were ppl who don't dine-in, ~30% cannibalization
2. Avg check per delivery 2x dine-in check; offsets $ to $GRUB
3. $PNRA spent $100M + $2 net variable exp for own delivery
@WSJ wsj.com/articles/consu…

Food delivery expand into rural/suburb, trying to cross Moore's chasm to early (or late?) majority
1. Pizza+Chinese popular-> $GRUB to benefit w/ $YUM Pizza Hut launch this year
2. $WTRH (southern delivery app) gets $1,500 upfront fee + lower (15%) rate
wsj.com/articles/food-…

Interesting competition in 3-sided food delivery; top 3 players w/diff focus & strength
1. $GRUB focus on restaurant partnership; see $DNKN quote
2. $DOOR focus on customer; scrape restaurant menu w/o consent for wide selection
3. $UBER eats focus on drivers/ quick delivery

Instacart & $DOOR pitch subscription plans to convert customers to superusers, despite variable cost of delivery
$GRUB CEO says "there is no chance that $AMZN Prime pricing construct works in food delivery"
from @WSJ wsj.com/articles/super…

$MCD $UBER deal:
1. 15% take-rate; 10% of $MCD sales come from delivery
2. $MCD wants to end 2-yr exclusivity w/ UberEats
3. $MCD currently gets 4% royalty from franchisees on full (not net) value of delivery -> cause avg franchisee FCF to decrease $30K
restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/mcdo…

$GRUB CEO Maloney interview w @WSJ
1. Cost restaurants $100M to build internal digital order software; LevelUp as white label alt
2. Consumers price elastic: 10x increase in ppl ordering w/ $0 delivery fee vs. $3. So key is operate delivery at break-even
wsj.com/articles/grubh…

$GRUB pitch by @ElliotTurn rgaia.com/q12019-investm…
1 Trough 4.5x EV/S valuation for A- quality biz
2 $YUM partnership to drive rev growth this year w a) new diners in current areas b) new mktg to up frequency c) new markets
3 $DOOR mkt share include non-food (eg $WMT delivery)

Doordash $DOOR "finalizing" to raise new $ at $11B valuation, per @theinformation

1. Up 60% from '18 financing round
2. Reads like leak from $DOOR to get valuation up
3. $SFTBF in a pickle. If it leads, hurts $UBER but can mark up gains on $DOOR

theinformation.com/articles/doord…?

Great @second_measure piece

1 Local market share
$GRUB owns NYC (top market, 70%) & CHI
$DOOR top in TX (50%)
$UBER top in MIA & ATL

2 Total growth of 56% YoY; penetration up frm 16% to 22%

3 Diff chain restaurant deals->less loyalty on delivery

secondmeasure.com/datapoints/foo…

Lawsuit claiming $GRUB charges for customers' calls w/o orders
1. $GRUB makes restaurants setup new phone #'s on its app to track GRUB's generated demand
2. Statistic model to determine if call led to order + transcript
3. Old ppl call
4. Bad optics though
nypost.com/2019/05/19/gru…

$DOOR announcement of $600M G round @ $12B pre
Led by Darsana Capital
Heavy on topline KPI

1 GMV of $7.5B; growing 280% YoY, fueled by
2 Geo expansion to 4K cities
3 1M subscription Dashpash customers
4. Partnership w/ $WH to unlock traveler cust segment
blog.doordash.com/fueling-the-la…

Postmates KPI's from @theinformation
1. Subscription accts 33% of rev; these users spend $3k annually
2. Rev 2x YoY
3. Annual plan cost $96; eliminates delivery fee
4. Supply of 44,000 restaurants
5. Postmates Party test (like UberPool, but for food)

theinformation.com/articles/what-…

Good thread on $GRUB $UBER eats & food delivery market

https://twitter.com/ElliotTurn/status/1132998787750879232

Big chain restaurants re-negotiating commission rates from $UBER and $DOOR

Less of a problem w/ $GRUB due to its long tail of independent restaurants, similar to $BKNG 's independent EU hotels mix

wsj.com/articles/resta…