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1/ This story in NYT (nyti.ms/2HR0A1p) on Impossible Foods trying to go mainstream is so similar to digital cameras trying to mainstream in late 1990. There were so many objections to the idea that one day Kodak will die.
2/ First, digital cameras cost much more than analog ones which require photographic film. Second, the quality from digital cameras was so much worse than those from analog ones. And third, people were used to loading films in their analog cameras and why would they give that up?
3/ There were other reasons why people thought that digital cameras will remain niche and never become mainstream and Kotak was not going to get affected.
4/ They were wrong. The cost of digital cameras went down as scale economics came into effect. The quality became better and better. And people abandoned their old habits and switched to digital. In droves
5/ Is the same story playing out in fast food business? I think it's early days . A lot will depend on how quickly Impossible Foods' business becomes mainstream thanks to deals with the likes of Burger King. But we will soon get to know. It will be much less 10 years in my view.
6/ If it happens, it will happen quickly. These things when they become popular and go mainstream tend to go viral. One big reason is that we now live in a hugely inter-connected world.
7/ Another big reason, I would speculate, is that the vast majority of non-vegetarians, if they like the taste of plant-based alternatives, would switch. They would switch even if it's a bit more costly to switch.
8/ And when they switch, companies like Impossible Foods will get huge scale benefits which if they pass them on to customers will remove another reason for not switching: the higher cost of plant based alternatives.
9/ If this plays out, the consequences will be far reaching - for many businesses and for the environment.
10/ The time to think about those consequences is now.
