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You can't read too much into any one by-election, but Newport (56% Leave) is interesting. The Brexit fiasco may have two broad effects on Leave voters in particular: 1) resigned collapse into disengagement 2) ferocious backlash. What happened here? Both, but 1>2.
1/5
1/5
Turnout was way down: 37% (2017: 64.5%). Normal for by-elections, but also suggests limited popular backlash, which would surely show up right now if ever. "A plague on all your houses" is the unsurprising response of many voters, who are used to being ignored.
2/5
2/5
Backlash nonetheless shows up in increased vote for UKIP (which is *now* a far-right party): 2,023/ 8.6% (2017: 1,180/ 3%). So ultra-Remainers have given second wind to what's now a far-right party - but it's a breeze, not a gale. Other pro-Brexit parties like SDP marginal.
3/5
3/5
Remainer Labour MPs will probably conclude that they can ride out the popular backlash from thwarting Brexit via a 2nd referendum. And they're probably right to an extent. Contra P. Mason et al., there's actually little appetite for far-right politics in Britain.
4/5
4/5
But longer term effects will be corrosive: festering resentment, massive disengagement, and parties surviving thanks to FPTP voting system, not deep popular support. The void between MPs and those they supposedly represent will widen. It's not a good story.
5/5
5/5
