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Latest jobs numbers show a damn healthy economy.
Payrolls +196k in March.
Positive revisions over the past two months add another +14k.
Over the past three months, the economy has produced on average +180k jobs per month. Which is smoking.
Unemployment steady at 3.8%.
Payrolls +196k in March.
Positive revisions over the past two months add another +14k.
Over the past three months, the economy has produced on average +180k jobs per month. Which is smoking.
Unemployment steady at 3.8%.
Last month's disappointing number led some to worry if the economy was at an inflection point. The wise @BetseyStevenson said it's just noise. Follow my household rule, and always listen to Betsey:
@BetseyStevenson If anything, the concern has to be that ongoing jobs growth of nearly +200k per month is going to be hard to sustain with the unemployment rate below 4%.
I mean, it's great that it's happening, but the Fed's going to be worried that it's happening too quickly.
I mean, it's great that it's happening, but the Fed's going to be worried that it's happening too quickly.
@BetseyStevenson Household survey is somewhat weaker, suggesting employment fell by -201k. That survey bears watching, because it suggests that employment has barely moved over recent months. But it's noisier data, so I still trust the robust payroll survey a lot more.
@BetseyStevenson Wage growth was muted in March, after a strongish number in Feb. Over the past year, nominal wages are only growing at 3.2%.
No sign of accelerating wage growth:
Last six months rate = 3.0%
Previous six months = 3.5%
Suggests the labor market still has room to improve.
No sign of accelerating wage growth:
Last six months rate = 3.0%
Previous six months = 3.5%
Suggests the labor market still has room to improve.
@BetseyStevenson Obvious reminder: No, it's not a Trump boom. It's a years-long trend, and there's been no break in that trend.
@BetseyStevenson We are in record territory: The longest ever consecutive string of positive private-sector jobs growth has now risen to 108 months. Congratulations 'murica.
@BetseyStevenson Two big questions going forward:
1. What will happen when Trump's fiscal stimulus fades?
2. Will capacity constraints emerge anytime soon, or does the economy have room to run?
1. What will happen when Trump's fiscal stimulus fades?
2. Will capacity constraints emerge anytime soon, or does the economy have room to run?
@BetseyStevenson My least favorite tic:
1. During the Obama years, all good jobs numbers were met by political opponents calling the new jobs bad jobs.
2. During the Trump years, it's now Democrats making this claim.
These data don't tell us anything about the quality of the new jobs created.
1. During the Obama years, all good jobs numbers were met by political opponents calling the new jobs bad jobs.
2. During the Trump years, it's now Democrats making this claim.
These data don't tell us anything about the quality of the new jobs created.
@BetseyStevenson You might be asking: How can the economy be so good if economic policy is so bad?
Here's my attempt -- a few weeks ago -- at answering that question.
nytimes.com/2019/02/04/bus…
Here's my attempt -- a few weeks ago -- at answering that question.
nytimes.com/2019/02/04/bus…
@BetseyStevenson And if you're wondering what could kill the current nearly decade-long expansion, I have an idea for you:
Appoint dangerously-unqualified ideologues to the Fed.
Appoint dangerously-unqualified ideologues to the Fed.
