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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
, 3 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
What EXACTLY happened in Newport West?

1. A, in 2016, staunch Leave seat voted in a Labour #PeoplesVote campainer as MP
2. UKIP vote increase was less than the Tory loss
3. Biggest gain was minor anti #Brexit parties - #Green, #Renew, #PC, #LibDems

& thats in a Leave seat....
In other words:

Delay/2nd ref likely to be more dangerous to Tories than Labour.
Danger to Labour is if anti #brexit is concentrated outside of Labour.

Remain thus becomes a vote winner even in Leave constituencies...
...but only if Labour takes lead & doesnt split remain vote.
Its increasingly clear that #Brexit is actually an oppotunity for Labour.
There will (always has been) 10-15% brexit vote, but Labour shouldnt fear this. A tory party obsessed with EU will split/demotivate their vote - Labour just needs to be the remain party & its a home run.
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More from @nicktolhurst see all

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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
Game theory

Likely Majority of Commons would back revoke/2ndRef rather than No deal.
Likely Majority ofCommons would back May's deal rather than No deal.

But both No dealers & Revoke/Referendum vastly outweigh people who want May's deal.

MPs are merely working out risk now.
Remainers have incentive to make no deal the alternative.
The more no deal seems likely, the less hardlliners will give it up, but the more no deal becomes likely this will scare some remainers/soft leavers to back the deal.

In other words the situation is intrinsically unstable
It cannot reach an equilibrium compromis because every movement in any direction immediately triggers another movement, thus creating a new equilibrium, which then triggers another movement. And so on.
Read 3 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
"Next Friday, March 29, is supposed to be the British people’s Independence Day. But because the elites control London from Brussels the will of the people is likely to be ignored."

Trump family stoking up conspiracy theories to wreck NHS & UK farming.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
2/
If you can stomache it read the comments page to above piece.
Its full of angry brexiters begging Trump to "take over" brexit & indeed UK.

You may laugh but its very revealing.
A brexiter is someone who'd rather be subservient to an American than share power with a European.
3/
What is very strange is Trump's own current United States Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross stated "that #Brexit is a God-given opportunity to steal trade from UK".

So brexit folk are demanding their exploitation - as oppossed to independence it wants subservience.

Why...?
Read 5 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
1/
 Imagine a moment you're Boris Johnson (hard, but try).
You're immoral, disloyal & dont give a damm about anything except being Prime Minister. Now do you vote against the deal even if some ERGers vote for it?

Well theres a cynical reading of Boris strategy that explains why..
2/
Now Boris who famously wrote letters both ways before #Brexit has if you think about no real ideologcal committment to brexit unlike much of ERG.

So cynically he will be one of the last opponents to back May's deal because if UK does remain he can then blame May...but if..
3/
But if theres no deal then Boris will have polished his hardliner credentials. Voting for May's deal compromises him with no upside he doesnt get by sticking to no deal.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Becca Seyfried
@BeccaGoldilocks
Dear leave voters,

You can’t honestly say you voted for a no deal Brexit in 2016. No one did. It simply wasn’t on the table three years ago.

We were promised a deal in 2016, and that is what leave voters voted for.
Not one leave campaigner spoke in favour of no deal during the referendum campaign. No one. Not UKIP, Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Gove etc. Even Vote Leave was clear that we’d leave with a deal.
Be honest. All talk of a no deal Brexit emerged after Maybot’s terrible deal was published, over two years after we voted. At least something unites us: we agree her deal is awful. It’s far inferior to our current terms, not least because we’d take rules without making them.
Read 19 tweets
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Douglas Unwin #StandFirm
@DouglasUnwin
LIST OF @UKLabour #LEAVE CONSTITUENCIES IN #EURef.

Seat,

Percentage of #LEAVE vote

Contact details for messages to MP

Walsall North @EddieHughes4WN 74.2% #LEAVE

Kingston upon Hull East @KarlTurnerMP 72.6% #LEAVE

Stoke-on-Trent North @RuthSmeeth 72.1% #LEAVE
@UKLabour #LEAVE CONSTITUENCIES IN #EURef.

Doncaster North @Ed_Miliband 72% #LEAVE

Great Grimsby @OnnMel 71.4% #LEAVE

Dudley North @IanAustinMP 71.4% #LEAVE

Barnsley East @Steph_Peacock 70.7% #LEAVE

Ashfield @GloriaDePiero 70.5% #LEAVE
More @UKLabour #LEAVE CONSTITUENCIES IN #EURef.

Bolsover @DennisSkinnerMP 70.2% #LEAVE

Dagenham and Rainham @JonCruddas_1 69/9% #LEAVE

Hartlepool @MikeHillMP 69.6% #LEAVE

Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford @YvetteCooperMP 69.3% #LEAVE
Read 34 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
Lets try sth -- using large scale @Survation estimates of support from a comprehensive 20k strong poll across the UK, we can see which constituencies have swung from #Leave in 2016 to #Remain if there was a rerun of the 2016 #EUref ...a map and the 10 biggest swings to Remain
Constituency #Southampton, #Itchen
#Leave in 2016 59.96
Estimated #Leave % in 2018 42.60
Estimated swing to #Remain -17.36
#Westminster Constituency: #Kingston upon Hull North
#Leave in 2016: 59.97
Estimated #Leave % in 2018 45.15
Estimated swing to #Remain -14.82
Read 53 tweets
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Izzy Knowles🔶
@gardensinboots
At the council house in the public gallery watching Birmingham City Council debate a #peoplesvote #finalsay on theBrexit deal. Watch live here. civico.net/birmingham/dem…
Passionate speech from @Jonperrybarr on the benefits of the EU and the damage it will cause to Birmingham to leave.
@BrumLeader making the case that 8 of 10 top trading parties for the city are in the EU, the incredible narrowness of the vote in Bham and that no one voted to make our region poorer.
Read 16 tweets
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Mark Alexander #FBPE
@markpalexander
Leave have money, Henry the 8th powers, lies, government, zero opposition, shillbots, MSM, Trump and Putin's "support". They attacked univesities, voters, immigrants, experts and judges.

After 2 years 1 thing is crystal clear. Leave have nothing to offer UK. #PeoplesVote
Real people hounded. Jo Cox murdered. The Brexit Taliban threatened my family, hoped my kids drowned, and my wife raped, said they had "wolves" they "couldnt control" outside the homes of folk who work for my business. #PeoplesVote
I felt totally alone then. I wasn't. The folk who helped get #FBPE off the ground were there too. They suffered too. Remain had nothing. No leaders, no media, attacked on every side. #PeoplesVote
Read 5 tweets
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Stuart Budd #PeoplesVote 🇬🇧🇪🇺❄️
@StuartBudd1
Unite Members:

57% backed #PeoplesVote
24% leave voters backed #PeoplesVote

West Midlands car workers:
“Only now have voters started to see through the initial referendum campaigns and truly understand the implications & costs of leaving the EU."

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Unite union:

"open to the possibility of a vote on any deal the Tories come back with"

"members fears that the Tories' in-fighting and destructive red lines will bring ruin to their jobs and communities"

Unite Statement:
unitebrexitcheck.org/unite-policy-c…

#PeoplesVote
Great speech by Julie Ward MEP on why she marched with #WomenForEurope for a #PeoplesVote

Women and the young will be the most affected by #Brexit



#PeoplesVote
#StopBrexit
#FBPE
Read 50 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #Heston #PeoplesVote #Hayes #FBPE #Amendment1 #Clause2asAmended #EUref #TheresaMayStatement #PMQs #binbrexitinbrum #Sutton #Clause1asAmended #WomenForEurope #Stockton #NoConfidence #Eltham #TheresaMay #amendments #Remain #Whips #peoplesvote #Coventry #Preston #EURef
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