Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning🌞. Happy to be back in 🇭🇰. Let's look at key econ data:

a) Japan machine orders (private sector) contracted -5.5%YoY, slightly worse than estimate
b) Mostly due to manufacturing🙁
c) Westpac April confidence out in 30 mins
d) China credit/monetary March data 🔥🤑

China monetary data:

a) Aggregate financing data (total volume of funds provided by the financial system to the real eco) expectations are CNY1830bn for March after an already massive Jan+Feb injection;

b) If expectations are correct, then injection's 8% of GDP for just Q1 😬🔥

South Korea:

a) Raised rates in Nov' 2018 by 25bps when growth slowed;
b) Now having an extra budget likely to exceed KWR7trn

Btw, Korea has been turning on the fiscal tap since Moon came into office to support labor while raising COSTS of production for firms (min wage + tax)

What is the result of such policy? Well, Korean PMIS have been contracting, exports & imports contracting, INVESTMENT contracting.

Small & medium enterprises weakening b/c they can't arbitrage higher labor costs & close down business.

Meanwhile, large firms cope by offshoring😬

Japan March machine tool orders (prelim) fall further to -28.5% YoY versus -29.3% in Feb

🤢

Silver lining: some stabilization 😬as m-o-m rebounded

Meaning, Japan Q1 2019 machine tool orders were pretty ugly (average was -25.5% YoY in Q1 2019) 🤢