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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Ive come to the conclusion Brexit isnt really about economics, trade or even immigration.

Rather its a deep seated psychological desire to destroy the EU out of jealousy for a peace that Britain feels has not afforded it the respect it deserves for its victory in war & empire.
Which of course explains why so many brexiters are so certain of the fundamental rightness of their ambition, without ever quite being able to articulate why its necessary.
It’s why of course the absurd laughable figure of Mark Francois is now so famous.

A normal country doing brexit would now be having worthy policy discussions on milk quotas & car factories.
Britain though prefers Tennyson poems & threats from a sweaty former weekend soldier.
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More from @nicktolhurst see all

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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
What EXACTLY happened in Newport West?

1. A, in 2016, staunch Leave seat voted in a Labour #PeoplesVote campainer as MP
2. UKIP vote increase was less than the Tory loss
3. Biggest gain was minor anti #Brexit parties - #Green, #Renew, #PC, #LibDems

& thats in a Leave seat....
In other words:

Delay/2nd ref likely to be more dangerous to Tories than Labour.
Danger to Labour is if anti #brexit is concentrated outside of Labour.

Remain thus becomes a vote winner even in Leave constituencies...
...but only if Labour takes lead & doesnt split remain vote.
Its increasingly clear that #Brexit is actually an oppotunity for Labour.
There will (always has been) 10-15% brexit vote, but Labour shouldnt fear this. A tory party obsessed with EU will split/demotivate their vote - Labour just needs to be the remain party & its a home run.
Read 3 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
Game theory

Likely Majority of Commons would back revoke/2ndRef rather than No deal.
Likely Majority ofCommons would back May's deal rather than No deal.

But both No dealers & Revoke/Referendum vastly outweigh people who want May's deal.

MPs are merely working out risk now.
Remainers have incentive to make no deal the alternative.
The more no deal seems likely, the less hardlliners will give it up, but the more no deal becomes likely this will scare some remainers/soft leavers to back the deal.

In other words the situation is intrinsically unstable
It cannot reach an equilibrium compromis because every movement in any direction immediately triggers another movement, thus creating a new equilibrium, which then triggers another movement. And so on.
Read 3 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
"Next Friday, March 29, is supposed to be the British people’s Independence Day. But because the elites control London from Brussels the will of the people is likely to be ignored."

Trump family stoking up conspiracy theories to wreck NHS & UK farming.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
2/
If you can stomache it read the comments page to above piece.
Its full of angry brexiters begging Trump to "take over" brexit & indeed UK.

You may laugh but its very revealing.
A brexiter is someone who'd rather be subservient to an American than share power with a European.
3/
What is very strange is Trump's own current United States Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross stated "that #Brexit is a God-given opportunity to steal trade from UK".

So brexit folk are demanding their exploitation - as oppossed to independence it wants subservience.

Why...?
Read 5 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders PM speaking to today have little expectation of a breakthrough in the cross-party talks with Jeremy Corbyn ahead of emergency #Brexit summit on Wednesday /1
EU leaders think it good idea to be in contact already now. PM doesn't have a good track record of performing 'on the night' at summits. She just spoke to Dutch PM Rutte. They'll talk again Weds morning before summit starts. Translation: No room for any more misunderstandings /2
EU leaders must come to unanimous conclusion on PM's extension request. But countries are divided. So Belgian PM has asked inner core of Most Affected Nations (affected by #Brexit ) eg Germany France, Netherlands to meet just before summit. An attempt to iron out differences /3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU emergency #brexit summit 10 April will start 6pm in Brussels. The PM will be invited to ‘engage’ with the 27 EU leaders +inform them of her plans/requests. She’ll then like last time be asked to leave the room while the 27 try to come to unified position required by EU law /1
Leaders are divided. No one likes idea of long #brexit delay - if PM asks for it - and it only takes one country (France in frontline) to say no - as EU decision must be unanimous BUT /2
If the UK does as EU had requested and agrees to holding European parliamentary elections as a condition for being granted a longer #Brexit delay then it’s hard to imagine EU saying no. Even if the PM only presents a vague plan of what intends to do during longer extension /3
Read 9 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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Stuart Foster #FBPE
@Stuart7610
1/ I am, and always will be a remainer, a passionate Eurofile who believes we should never have left the EU. However, over the past nine months I have concluded that our best way forward is to leave, and to join EFTA and stay in the EEA.
2/ This is correctly known as the EFTA/EEA option, or sometimes more loosely as the Norway Model.
3/ More information about EFTA/EEA is available from @LeaveHQ, @EFTA4UK, @Petenorth303 and at eureferendum.com.
Read 25 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
#Brexit as a concept is increasingly drifting from having anything whatsoever to do with the mechanics of leaving the EU. It is now primarily a culture war and both sides will totally ignore the details except for when they are temporarily convenient.
The consequence of this is that our future relationship with the EU will be just as readily ignored as our activities as a member. They said Brexit would make us isolated, self absorbed and insular but it seems that was always the case and there are no signs of that changing.
As ever the details will be delegated to officials and civil servants while our establishment politics drifts further into its cycle of decline, unable to usefully influence external events making us entirely passive and reactive to events rather than self-interestedly engaged.
Read 17 tweets

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