Thread by @SethAMandel

1. So this talking point about Bibi killing the two state solution is really catching on. Put aside whether 2SS is actually, fully “dead” for now. What’s interesting is that the lack of progress on 2SS is spurring this. And that’s a relatively new development.

2. The “Oslo” process, as we know it, began with Madrid under George HW Bush. And since then, Obama was the first US president to preside over zero forward motion on the 2SS. And while Bibi isn’t blameless, it’s hard to pin this on the “right wing” bogeymen we’re to.

3. The process has made progress through every combination of right-left US-Israel govts:

GOP prez & RW PM: HW/Shamir; GWB/Sharon

Dem prez & left PM: Clinton/Rabin; Clinton/Barak

GOP & left: HW/Rabin

Dem & right PM: Clinton/Bibi

4. So you can’t really blame this on ideology or “the settlers” or whatever. It’s an easy out, but HW preferred Rabin, Clinton made a Bibi-Arafat deal over Hebron, and the biggest land concessions were brought about by George W Bush and Ariel Sharon.

5. Obama came in with a clear stated strategy, as he told Jewish leaders to their face (to Obama’s credit btw): put daylight between the US and Israel. That strategy failed (see my thread the other day on Carter-Begin for why).

6. They did get around to negotiations though, and what happened? John Kerry *royally* screwed up. Told each side they could have what they wanted on prisoner releases and thought the problem he created would solve itself. It didn’t.

7. Now, is was Bibi blameless? As I said, no! Nor was Abbas, who for some reason goes unmentioned in these debates over whether Bibi is the devil or the devil plus Jim Dolan.

8. But the idea that the rise of the right necessarily meant the death of the 2SS is nonsensical and utterly unsupported by all the evidence.

That brings us to the other new aspect here: Trump

9. Trump simply broke the rule, which was to let the Palestinians hold Israeli rights ransom, even as they kept rejecting offers for peace. So he just started saying things that were true: J’lem is the capital, Golan is Israeli, etc.

10. And part of that, though, is cleaning up Obama’s mess. It’s hard to overstate just what a massive failure Obama was in the Mideast, but Trump has spent his time so far undoing damage bequeathed to him: Team Obama’s disgusting UN resolution, empowering Iran, etc.

11. Obama made J’lem recognition essential—someone had to undo the US calling the freaking Kotel occupied territory. Same with the Iran stuff. He knew what he was doing, but he miscalculated, assuming Trump would just take the flaming bag of horsecaca he left on Trump’s porch.

12. Obama also made a clear choice: let Assad be for fear of driving the Iranians away from the table. Hence, Trump’s Golan recognition, which attempts to give Israel back some of the leverage lost.

13. Through all this, Bibi is welcoming moves *that everyone else welcomes too.* His campaign rivals supported J’lem & Golan moves. For that, we’re told he’s working with Trump to kill the 2SS. As if the Jews can’t want their own rights, there must be a murderous hidden agenda.

14. There’s not always an evil ulterior motive. Sometimes it’s ok to just do the right thing. And perhaps when they’re done cleaning up Obama’s mess, they also won’t make progress on the 2SS. That’ll be too bad. And you can bet you’ll be lied to about who’s to blame. /fin

PS: point is for eight years we were told “I can’t make a deal with the Israeli right.”

Okay, well: Carter made one with Begin, Clinton made one with Bibi, and GWB made one with Sharon. So, you know, *maybe it’s you.*

(k now put a lid on this thread)