No E Jerusalem capital, limited territory & partial sovereignty on W Bank, most Israeli settlers stay, no right of return: Alarmed & astonished Palestinian & Arab officials say Saudis floated these as possible items in a Trump Mideast plan. nytimes.com/2017/12/03/wor…
We came across this story by accident while reporting another one, with @MariaAbiHabib @halbfinger @peterbakernyt @Alissanyt et al.
Proposals were floated to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) when he was summoned unexpectedly to Riyadh last month to meet Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), numerous people briefed on the matter say.
Pal & Leb officials said MBS told Abu Mazen: Accept or be pressured to resign for a replacement who will, in exchange for lots of Saudi $$ for Palestinians. This came days after Saudis orchestrated resignation of Lebanon PM Saad Hariri.
Saudi govt, White House & Abu Mazen's spokesman deny, say plan not finalized. But our many sources didn't suggest it was a final plan. They said the idea that this is even thought about is shocking & shows how far dynamics have shifted.
A Pal member of Isr parliament, Ahmad Tibi, said US & Israeli officials floated similar items--a state w/something called "moral sovereignty"--& told they must give up something to get "two-state solution." But 2 states is long-agreed int'l goal already.
"What is changing now for [Abu Mazen] are the frames of reference,” a person briefed in detail on the discussions told us. W/Israelis & KSA backing, Arabs & Europe could be divided, and "the U.S. is in a totally different zone."
“As long as they remain quiet about this, we do have fear of something like this happening": Hassan Yousef, WB Hamas & PLC member. "Very important" that Abu Mazen “tells Pal people 'we were offered 1,2,3,4 and we refused this offer.'”
But even Hamas rivals say inconceivable that Abu Mazen would accept, and if any leadership did, "the Palestinian people would not let them remain.”
Such proposals sound far-fetched on their face - but so do so many things that have actually happened or been considered in the region lately.
What alarms people is context: Close relationship btw MBS & Jared Kushner (both see selves as young reformers ready to ignore/challenge ossified assumptions); Saudi focus on normalization w/Israel & alliance vs Iran; Trump plan to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital on Wed
And MBS penchant for telling people what to do, ignoring experts and taking gambles that analysts & officials say reveal a lack of understanding of basic regional dynamics: Qatar, Lebanon, Yemen.
A Fatah official said Abu Mazen was pushed to support Saudi campaign vs Iran & Qatar, pressure Hamas to cut ties; wasn't willing on Qatar where he's a citizen, has business interests.
Several Lebanese and Palestinian sources said Abu Mazen was even told if he resigned and blessed the plan he'd be paid off personally; they didn't believe he'd accept such a thing. Fatah & Saudis deny it happened.
In any case, when Abu Mazen left Riyadh to Amman he started making phone calls. One Lebanese govt official said there was even talk of a Pal capital in Abu Dis, a suburb of E Jerusalem which is behind the Israeli wall.
No one could say that to any Palestinian, this official said, unless a person lacking experience was trying to flatter the family of the American president.
Another surprising idea discussed at some point: attaching part of Egypt's Sinai, lately plagued by jihadist attacks, to Gaza. A Western official said Egypt already had rejected that idea & Israel wouldn't like it either. But Pals afraid Egypt could be tempted by $ and jobs.
Trump's plan to call Jerusalem Israeli capital shows ideas once beyond the pale can now be seriously considered. Even w/o ruling out Pal capital in E, that overturns decades of consensus that change in Jeru status must be part of final settlement.
Palestinian officials already have said that move would threaten any chance of a two-state solution and could even provoke a new Palestinian uprising.
PLO leader Saeb Erekat says it would provoke “international anarchy and disrespect for global institutions and law," destabilize region, aid those who oppose peaceful solution & disqualify US "to play any role in any initiative towards achieving a just and lasting peace.”
“Jerusalem is the social, political, cultural, religious & economic heart of Palestine, ... of billions of believers from the 3 monotheistic religions, incl 100 millions of Arab Christians & Muslims. It is, therefore, the heart of the Arab World.”
He said that when PLO made difficult decision in 1988 to accept future state alongside Israel on 1967 borders, it was with the understanding that Jerusalem as a shared capital for both Israel and Palestine was sacrosanct.
Saudis insist that they remain committed to Arab peace plan calling for state on 1967 borders with E Jerusalem capital.
Were MBS and/or others freelancing, sending trial balloons, trying to curry favor by out-Trumping Trump, or seeking to make an eventual not-great deal look good by comparison? Other scenarios? Time will tell. Stay tuned for our Lebanon story.
List of reporters at the top should include Nour Youssef, whose Twitter handle I can't find, and @AbiHabib instead of @MariaAbiHabib. Also with help from @nazzal_rami and @hwaida_saad
