Thread by @Usherwood

Theres a lot to unpack here, so let's get started

1/

https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1116594587248709632

UKIP as a party started out with an extremely narrow focus back in the early 1990s: win enough seats in #EP94 (as it wasn't called then) that when it didn't take them, it'd cause a crisis & thus UK withdrawal

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When this cunning plan didn't work, there was a shift to taking up seats to use them as a platform to expose the bad things about EU and UK's membership thereof

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That made a small impression, but it was the broadening of the party's policies from the mid-2000s that saw the big break-through, aided by more financing and the glitter of some big names (and Kilroy)

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The UKIP that made such an impression from 2009 to 2015/6 was one that talked more and more about immigration, and about the failure of the System to work for the left-behinds: the EU element became a means to an end rather than an end in itself

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But #EUref highlighted how much UKIP was still treated as a party based on the membership Q: the success of Leave was also the bell tolling for the party

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Since 2016 UKIP has gone through more leaders and approaches than at any stage since its formation, none of which have really stuck or resonated with the public

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All of which is to raise the Q of Farage of "which UKIP?" is his new gig like?

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Assuming he means "the one you all loved so much, back when I was in charge", then he's going about it in an odd way

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That UKIP was the one that moved furthest from defining itself as solely a withdrawalist party, mainly because its leader (a Mr N Farage) recognised the limited potential of that one idea

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So why then join a party that is even more narrowly pinned down by its name, which'll have the competition with the party with the name recognition (UKIP), and nothing to differentiate it on policy?

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In this, the answer has to be Farage himself. The relationship with UKIP as a party was never that happy, so this his chance to make things as he would have them (esp. given the recent resignations of snr people in the Brexit Party)

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All of which is to say that we will get to see whether Farage's charisma is enough to offset the multiple structural disadvantages his party faces.

At a first glance, one might consider that unlikely, if only because he doesn't make nearly as much weather as in 2014

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However, it's a bizarre time in British politics and we still have to see how all the other parties tackle #EP2019

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That said, hard to see how UKIP don't pitch as hard as they can into this, as this their last best hope of keeping a profile

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Tl;dr you can't step in the same river twice

/end