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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Memo to Conservative Party:

Since March 29th you've averaged just 32.6%
This is Michael Howard 2005 territory
You've lost 9 pts in a year
You're losing Leavers; support down 12 points in 5 months
UKIP+Brexit Party have doubled in 3 months to 11%

These numbers = PM Jeremy Corbyn
I did warn about all of this happening in the @spectator in July 2018; that Prime Minister May's handling of Brexit and misinterpretation of how Leavers see Brexit was going to put populists back on steroids spectator.co.uk/2018/07/ukip-i…
Would also recommend @Telegraph piece by @whatukthinks: "Winning back lost Leave voters would be crucial ... However, now that many have lost their faith in ability of Conservatives to deliver, stirring words about a ‘hard’ Brexit may no longer be enough" bit.ly/2KESs6B
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Financial crisis = national populism? Not so, says new (academic) paper. People who lost income amid crisis became more likely to vote radical LEFT, not right. Fits with wider evidence we discuss in our book economic hardship helps left more than right

bit.ly/2ZG1H9Y
"we find no clear evidence that individuals whose economic circumstances deteriorated became more supportive of radical right parties"
Why does this matter? As we discuss in our book many (esp. on left) routinely wheel out "economic scarcity = populism" narrative. This is comfortable bc it fits older Marxist takes & reluctance of many today to even think about let alone accept (more important) cultural drivers
Read 4 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Wowzer. New poll on Britain's #EP2019 next month

-more than half of Leave support now going to Brexit Party
-'hard' Eurosceptic Brexit Party + UKIP on a combined 34% of vote

Brexit Party 27%
Labour 22%
Conservative 15%
Lib Dem 9%
UKIP 7%
Change UK 6%
SNP 4%

YouGov Apr 16
Well, Brexit has been handled so well that it appears to have brought Nigel Farage back to life. Back in 2014, we estimated that the ceiling for the populist right in Britain was approx. 30%. An open question is whether the Brexit fiasco has now raised that ceiling.
Looking at numbers, Brexit Party appears to be hoovering up disillusioned Conservatives, Leavers, bit more popular among men, 50 years +, stronger among working-class (though significant middle-class support) & more than two-fold support in Midlands/non-London south than London
Read 5 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
1/3 It was once argued that several of Europe's democracies -Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Britain & also Spain were immune to populism, variously because of their legacy of fascism, historic liberalism, strong institutions & fact their extremist populists were "beyond the pale"
2/3 These countries are no longer exceptions. Now seen successful populists. The general consensus among academics is this id due to combination of significant public 'demand' for their policies & changes in party 'supply' (parties like UKIP, AfD, FvD less toxic, more competent)
3/3 This new, interesting (academic) paper adds to this debate, looks mainly at Spain & Vox. Suggests that what matters is the increased importance of immigration to voters & ability of Vox to avoid badge of 'extremism' partly by focusing on other issues

bit.ly/2UKAu75
Read 3 tweets

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Which party has the oldest average age of MPs? THREAD
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