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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Financial crisis = national populism? Not so, says new (academic) paper. People who lost income amid crisis became more likely to vote radical LEFT, not right. Fits with wider evidence we discuss in our book economic hardship helps left more than right

bit.ly/2ZG1H9Y
"we find no clear evidence that individuals whose economic circumstances deteriorated became more supportive of radical right parties"
Why does this matter? As we discuss in our book many (esp. on left) routinely wheel out "economic scarcity = populism" narrative. This is comfortable bc it fits older Marxist takes & reluctance of many today to even think about let alone accept (more important) cultural drivers
Yet this is now utterly undermined by (now very large) pile of research in social sciences which a few (not all) economists + left leaning thinkers like to ignore. "Brexit = austerity", "populism = sovereign debt crisis" easier than the far more complex story that is unfolding
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
New #EP2019 polling UK

The % vote going to the Brexit Party is now bigger than Con+Lab

Conservatives facing meltdown

Brexit Party 34 (+6)
Labour 21 (-7)
Lib Dem 12 (+5)
Conservative 11 (-3)
Green 8 (+2)
UKIP 4 (+1)
Change UK 3 (-4)

Opinium May 7 (change since Apr 23)
This gives us a bit more evidence not only of the lingering strength of populist Euroscepticism in British politics (UKIP+Brexit Party combined now on 38%) but also of the recovery of Lib Dems, Greens vs continued failure of Change UK
This was all so utterly predictable.
Read 3 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Wowzer. New poll on Britain's #EP2019 next month

-more than half of Leave support now going to Brexit Party
-'hard' Eurosceptic Brexit Party + UKIP on a combined 34% of vote

Brexit Party 27%
Labour 22%
Conservative 15%
Lib Dem 9%
UKIP 7%
Change UK 6%
SNP 4%

YouGov Apr 16
Well, Brexit has been handled so well that it appears to have brought Nigel Farage back to life. Back in 2014, we estimated that the ceiling for the populist right in Britain was approx. 30%. An open question is whether the Brexit fiasco has now raised that ceiling.
Looking at numbers, Brexit Party appears to be hoovering up disillusioned Conservatives, Leavers, bit more popular among men, 50 years +, stronger among working-class (though significant middle-class support) & more than two-fold support in Midlands/non-London south than London
Read 5 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
1/3 It was once argued that several of Europe's democracies -Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Britain & also Spain were immune to populism, variously because of their legacy of fascism, historic liberalism, strong institutions & fact their extremist populists were "beyond the pale"
2/3 These countries are no longer exceptions. Now seen successful populists. The general consensus among academics is this id due to combination of significant public 'demand' for their policies & changes in party 'supply' (parties like UKIP, AfD, FvD less toxic, more competent)
3/3 This new, interesting (academic) paper adds to this debate, looks mainly at Spain & Vox. Suggests that what matters is the increased importance of immigration to voters & ability of Vox to avoid badge of 'extremism' partly by focusing on other issues

bit.ly/2UKAu75
Read 3 tweets

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Henrik Zeberg
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Jay Porks 67680 🌊 🇺🇸
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Ignore the polls and get out there and #Vote on November 6th. Relying on polling is a relic of a time gone by.
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Ian Bassin
@ianbassin
It is bone chilling to re-read this @davidfrum from the beginning of 2017. Just read it. So much of it has happened or seems vastly more plausible than it did back then.

The water is simmering. We are the frog. Nov 6 we either jump out of the pot or... theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
I'm going to quote a few lines from it that today read like history, not prediction: "Big tax cuts, big spending, and big deficits have worked their familiar expansive magic."
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Mona
@Monaheart1229
This is a good article, talking about problems that we have to, that the GOP won't and that we CAN fix! But first, just #Vote damnit!
#SundayMotivation
The Myth of the Lazy Nonvoter
nyti.ms/2CvoRaT
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James Barisic 🇪🇺 #FBPE
@jamesmb
As the new #academic year beckons, I'm preparing new lectures and materials, including on the EU single market. The irony that I, as a British citizen, may not be allowed to work in the EU without a visa post-March isn't lost on me.

#PeoplesVote #StopBrexit #edchat #educhat
Given that the UK will be days away from leaving the @DSMeu when I deliver one of the lectures... on the #digital #singlemarket it's going to call for some agile teaching because I have no doubt the UK government will still be making it up as they go along as they have thus far.
However, whatever the stress caused by this, my thoughts will be with fellow British lecturers, academics & researchers in the EU27 and EU27 lecturers, academics & researchers in the UK who do not know their future.
Read 4 tweets
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Hurricane Watcher
@GodlessNZ
(1) Today I'm celebrating the best Easter in my 48 years on this earth.

And I'm not even a Christian. But I'll tell you why I'm so grateful for the life and death of Jesus Christ, and those who follow him today, especially those in the USA.
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