, 9 tweets, 11 min read Read on Twitter
1. A short story of #Brexit in four acts. Act 1) in 2010 Coalition comes to power and presses on with dramatic #austerity, wrecking the UK's social compact... causing massive economic harm...leading to 2015 General Election
2.... in which Cameron promised an #EUref, while secretly speculating on another hung parliament with #LibDems blocking such a referendum theguardian.com/world/2019/jan… Yet, Act 2) lots of #austerity disgruntled #LibDems & 2010 non-voters, along with some Cons voters switched to..
3. #UKIP in 2015 General Election. #LibDems got wiped out, #Cons gained 27 seats from LibDems (out 28 overall seat gain), while #Labour lost massively to #SNP -- allowing Cameron to go alone, being pushed by #Brexiteers in #Conservative party to go ahead with #EUref.
4. Act 3) lots of disgruntled 2010 #coalition voters heckled by #austerity taking their protest to #EURef (Panel B) supporting #Leave in the 2016 #EUreferendum (many thinking #Remain would win), but wanted "to send a message" ...
5. all whipped up by unchecked #Leave campaign promises of a brighter future, an #NHS windfall and an end to #austerity and a brighter economic future...
6. Act 4), in Panels C & D with 2010 coalition Leave supporters in austerity hit areas realizing they have been conned -- the 2010 coalition voters in #austerity hit areas are sig. more likely to regret their #Leave vote & more likely to be unhappy with the #Leave result.
7. If there one thing that is for sure to blame for #Brexit -- its #Austerity and the UK's political and specifically, electoral system.
8. Read more about how #austerity caused #brexit goo.gl/Ug2ouf and how austerity is now strongly driving the swing to #remain goo.gl/CkUkgD -- the marginal #Leave voter that swung the #Referendum for leave was a protest voter.
9. Analysis is done using the BES Panel data waves 1-14, happy to share details. @simonjhix @UKandEU @anandMenon1 @cage_warwick @warwicknewsroom @ImranRasul3 @pollytoynbee @SiobhanBenita @AnthonyGlees
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