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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
, 9 tweets, 11 min read Read on Twitter
1. A short story of #Brexit in four acts. Act 1) in 2010 Coalition comes to power and presses on with dramatic #austerity, wrecking the UK's social compact... causing massive economic harm...leading to 2015 General Election
2.... in which Cameron promised an #EUref, while secretly speculating on another hung parliament with #LibDems blocking such a referendum theguardian.com/world/2019/jan… Yet, Act 2) lots of #austerity disgruntled #LibDems & 2010 non-voters, along with some Cons voters switched to..
3. #UKIP in 2015 General Election. #LibDems got wiped out, #Cons gained 27 seats from LibDems (out 28 overall seat gain), while #Labour lost massively to #SNP -- allowing Cameron to go alone, being pushed by #Brexiteers in #Conservative party to go ahead with #EUref.
4. Act 3) lots of disgruntled 2010 #coalition voters heckled by #austerity taking their protest to #EURef (Panel B) supporting #Leave in the 2016 #EUreferendum (many thinking #Remain would win), but wanted "to send a message" ...
5. all whipped up by unchecked #Leave campaign promises of a brighter future, an #NHS windfall and an end to #austerity and a brighter economic future...
6. Act 4), in Panels C & D with 2010 coalition Leave supporters in austerity hit areas realizing they have been conned -- the 2010 coalition voters in #austerity hit areas are sig. more likely to regret their #Leave vote & more likely to be unhappy with the #Leave result.
7. If there one thing that is for sure to blame for #Brexit -- its #Austerity and the UK's political and specifically, electoral system.
8. Read more about how #austerity caused #brexit goo.gl/Ug2ouf and how austerity is now strongly driving the swing to #remain goo.gl/CkUkgD -- the marginal #Leave voter that swung the #Referendum for leave was a protest voter.
9. Analysis is done using the BES Panel data waves 1-14, happy to share details. @simonjhix @UKandEU @anandMenon1 @cage_warwick @warwicknewsroom @ImranRasul3 @pollytoynbee @SiobhanBenita @AnthonyGlees
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
Even more gold from @BESResearch -- while I do think that online opinion polls are generally extremely problematic due to the likely significant selection bias that it introduces, there is still some signal in the data that tells us about the nature of #leave support in 2016.
Waves 7/8 asked participants what they expect how the EU referendum is going to pan out... i.e. it asked what probability respondents attach to a #Leave vote, some subsequent waves ask whether people regret how they vote.
20 - 30% of respondents stated the probability of a #Leave success is less than 40%. Now, the nice thing is the BES also subsequently asked, how people voted and whether they regret how they voted -- it asks whether people are #remainernow
Read 5 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
Lets try sth -- using large scale @Survation estimates of support from a comprehensive 20k strong poll across the UK, we can see which constituencies have swung from #Leave in 2016 to #Remain if there was a rerun of the 2016 #EUref ...a map and the 10 biggest swings to Remain
Constituency #Southampton, #Itchen
#Leave in 2016 59.96
Estimated #Leave % in 2018 42.60
Estimated swing to #Remain -17.36
#Westminster Constituency: #Kingston upon Hull North
#Leave in 2016: 59.97
Estimated #Leave % in 2018 45.15
Estimated swing to #Remain -14.82
Read 53 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
New @cage_warwick paper with @EleAla on "Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore?" Using local area estimates from @chrishanretty based on data from a 20k @Survation poll we study how the level & geography of support for Leave has changed since 2016... goo.gl/CkUkgD 1/
Swing away from #Leave is widespread and happening broadly across the UK, specifically in England, Wales, Cornwall and the North. Overall estimated level of support for Leave is 6 percentage points lower across UK, but masks significant heterogeneity. 2/
We follow similar approach as in earlier work with @essobecker and @DennisNovy to decompose the geographic variation to identify which factors are capturing the variation across the UK in the swing away from #Leave to #Remain.... 3/
Read 8 tweets

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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
#Brexit rentrée today - what are the objectives for @dominraab and @OllyRobbins?
There are two main objectives for UK side
The most important is to stop @michelbarnier and European Commission totally killing off the Chequers white paper
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. This is going to sound a bit preachy but I'm going to roll with it anyway. The Tory Brexiters have pulled a fast one. They have shifted to goalposts and now propagandists are spinning the narrative that any deal is a betrayal of #Brexit. These people are professional liars.
2. If we had a functioning media the people who say we can rely on WTO rules as a basis for our post-Brexit trade relations would be hauled over the coals by all of the major newspapers because it is not a matter of mere opinion. It is an outright demonstrable lie.
3. But rather than outing liars as indeed our media should, many vessels are actually complicit in the lie. Particularly BrexitCentral, City AM, The Telegraph, the Express and The Spectator. They will give houseroom to liars without flinching. This is what they do now.
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The UK can get most of what it wants by agreeing to the EEA. It creates a stable framework which can be introduced in stages as each country specific protocol takes effect, creating space for continual negotiations - allowing us an independent trade policy almost immediately.
2. The first priority is to deal with the administrative act of leaving the EU. Subsequent issues can be refine and negotiated precisely because the EEA is an adaptive framework. The issues can be ironed out over time. It;s better than a perma-transition vassal state.
3. The EEA would provide a great deal of legal certainty for business, ensuring that the regulatory environment for trade remains intact - allowing them to remain in the UK and resume their investment plans.
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Simon Cox
@SimonFRCox
UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
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