Thread by @yarbatman

1. Continued implementation of civil nuclear cooperation under the #JCPOA depends not on the commitment of governments, but on the decisions of a single Chinese company, the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC). This is the deal's fatal flaw.
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…

2. The Trump administration is considering revoking three waivers critical for the nuclear work at Arak, Fordow, and Bushehr. Unlike the economic promises of the JCPOA, the work on these three nuclear sites is fundamental to the non-proliferation commitments of the JCPOA.

3. While #Iran failed to see the economic dividends of the nuclear deal, both due to the lingering effects of sanctions when lifted and their eventual reimposition by Trump, it was largely taken for granted that the non-proliferation work would continue.

4. Indeed, Iran continued to abide by its side of the agreement. But earlier this year, the head of Iran's atomic energy organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, stated publicly that China was not carrying out required work on the Arak reactor redesign.
scmp.com/news/china/dip…

5. It appears that the same sanctions concerns that hobbled economic engagement under the JCPOA might hobble nuclear cooperation as well. CNNC is a global firm with Belt and Road ambitions. It is looking at US targeting of companies like ZTE + Huawei and seeing huge risks.

6. In the face of the limited investment Iran saw after sanctions relief, the parties of the JCPOA have repeatedly stated that they can't force companies into the Iranian market. This has been the cop out. But now the issue arises in the essential area nuclear cooperation.

7. If the US revokes the nuclear waivers, I see no way CNNC will continue work on Arak without some major state intervention. The JCPOA parties failed to fully resist US sanctions for the sake of economic engagement. Will they *finally* do so for the sake of non-proliferation?