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I worked as CEA senior economist for labor in 2016-‘17. Briefed @WhiteHouse & SecLabor @tomperez & @SecretaryAcosta on #JobsReport monthly. I was honored to serve American people
@barackobama
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@realDonaldTrump
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@barackobama
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@realDonaldTrump
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Most important stat for families: wage growth. Measures how economic change affects our earning power.
Last month, average hourly earnings up 3.2% over year.
# jobseekers (red line) fell until 2 months ago.
# job openings (blue) up since '09.
Tightening accelerates wage growth
Last month, average hourly earnings up 3.2% over year.
# jobseekers (red line) fell until 2 months ago.
# job openings (blue) up since '09.
Tightening accelerates wage growth
Average hourly earnings growth (blue line: 3.2%) eroded some by modest price inflation (red: 1.9%).
Real wage growth (blue – red) rising but low. Average hour of private-sector work buys 1.3% more now than a year ago.
Growth was faster in 2015, thanks to lower price inflation
Real wage growth (blue – red) rising but low. Average hour of private-sector work buys 1.3% more now than a year ago.
Growth was faster in 2015, thanks to lower price inflation
I will be watching employment in temporary help services, the most flexible part of employment & so a leading indicator of recession. Flattening? Negative in 2 of last 3 months:
Jan: - 26.3
Feb: 3.1
Apr: -5.4
Sign of weakening or just noise?
Jan: - 26.3
Feb: 3.1
Apr: -5.4
Sign of weakening or just noise?
The Employment Situation report will be here
bls.gov/news.release/e…
bls.gov/news.release/e…
+263K jobs gained last month (mid-Mar to mid-Apr). Continues longest streak of monthly job growth on record to 103 months.
We broke prior record, 48 months, in Oct 2014. Longest streak of private-sector job growth too, since April 2010.
We broke prior record, 48 months, in Oct 2014. Longest streak of private-sector job growth too, since April 2010.
How does this compare to recent years?
Over the year, job growth is up. Economy added 2.62 million jobs over last 12 months.
Higher than 2 prior years, less than 12 months to April 2016 or 2015.
Over the year, job growth is up. Economy added 2.62 million jobs over last 12 months.
Higher than 2 prior years, less than 12 months to April 2016 or 2015.
That 2.62 million over the year => 218K/mo.
Over last 3 months = 169K.
Still strong but slower.
This month’s +263 K >> estimate of job growth needed to maintain a low, stable unemployment rate given demog change ~= +80K.
Over last 3 months = 169K.
Still strong but slower.
This month’s +263 K >> estimate of job growth needed to maintain a low, stable unemployment rate given demog change ~= +80K.
What about temporary help services, the most flexible part of employment & leading indicator of recession? Up 17.9K this month, good sign for continuing strength.
Apr: 17.9
Mar: -5.4
Feb: 3.1
Jan: - 26.3
Keep eye on it tho.
Apr: 17.9
Mar: -5.4
Feb: 3.1
Jan: - 26.3
Keep eye on it tho.
Growth bump over last year reflects in part temp fiscal stimulus from borrowing to finance Dec 2017 tax law & addt'l deficit spending.
Fiscal policy at all gov't levels added 0.49 pp to GDP growth in year to 2019Q1. Include 2Q w/most stimulus since 2010
brookings.edu/interactives/h…
Fiscal policy at all gov't levels added 0.49 pp to GDP growth in year to 2019Q1. Include 2Q w/most stimulus since 2010
brookings.edu/interactives/h…
Unemployment rate declined 0.2% to 3.6%, has fallen for years. At low, but maybe noninflationary, level.().
Labor force participation rate (LFPR) declined 0.2% to 62.8%, unchanged over the year. Was:
63.0% last month (Mar).
63.2% in Jan and Feb
Boomer retirements push LFPR down 0.25-0.3 pp/yr. So this is better than it seems.
63.0% last month (Mar).
63.2% in Jan and Feb
Boomer retirements push LFPR down 0.25-0.3 pp/yr. So this is better than it seems.
Employment-population ratio (EPOP) unchanged at 60.6%. Was:
60.7% in Jan and Feb
Was 60.3% a year ago.
Been climbing steadily since late 2013.
60.7% in Jan and Feb
Was 60.3% a year ago.
Been climbing steadily since late 2013.
That’s the extensive quantity (Q) margin. Intensive Q margin is average hours.
Average workweek hours for private sector ticked down 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. Was 34.5 hours a year ago & pretty stable since 2012.
Manufacturing workweek hours unchanged.
Average workweek hours for private sector ticked down 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. Was 34.5 hours a year ago & pretty stable since 2012.
Manufacturing workweek hours unchanged.
If employer demand for labor rises faster than new workers enter to supply, price (wage) should rise.
This month's 3.2% nominal wage growth over the year = last month.
Consumer price inflation = 1.9% over year (red).
Real wage growth = 1.3% (blue-red) < Apr 2015 or Apr 2016
This month's 3.2% nominal wage growth over the year = last month.
Consumer price inflation = 1.9% over year (red).
Real wage growth = 1.3% (blue-red) < Apr 2015 or Apr 2016
For 4/5th of workers who are frontline, nominal wage growth at 3.4% over year (blue line), 3.3% last month & 3.5% 2 months ago. Up from a year ago.
Accounting for price inflation, avg hour of work for frontline workers now buys abt 1.4% more than a year ago (blue-red).
Accounting for price inflation, avg hour of work for frontline workers now buys abt 1.4% more than a year ago (blue-red).
Still slack, Americans needing work.
Americans stuck in part time but prefer full time little changed at 4.7 million (graph).
+ Long-term unemployment little changed at 1.2 million.
+ Marginally attached 1.4 million, little changed over year.
Americans stuck in part time but prefer full time little changed at 4.7 million (graph).
+ Long-term unemployment little changed at 1.2 million.
+ Marginally attached 1.4 million, little changed over year.
White House brags about # of jobs added.
Some context:
5.40 million jobs added since administration start in Jan’17, over 27 months ending Apr’19.
3% more than 5.26M over same 27 months ending Apr’18
3% less than same ending Apr’17
15% less than same ending Apr’16
Some context:
5.40 million jobs added since administration start in Jan’17, over 27 months ending Apr’19.
3% more than 5.26M over same 27 months ending Apr’18
3% less than same ending Apr’17
15% less than same ending Apr’16
Sometimes White House likes to count jobs added before administration started. It gives the same basic result.
Check out new analysis @hamiltonproj
The Fed has 2 jobs sometimes in tension: promote stable prices & maximum employment. 2 years ago, it started the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute #OIGI to better promote maximum employment. It held a great conference in April. Its director sums up:
A voting member on the @federalreserve open market committee & the person most-responsible for #OIGI's start is @MinneapolisFed President @neelkashkari. He sums up today's report accurately:
Last thing. @BLS_gov does amazing work to create timely, accurate info about America's working families, a huge public good.
They are there for us & we need to show up for them.
If you are a labor economist or care about workers & employment, follow & join @Friends_of_BLS.
They are there for us & we need to show up for them.
If you are a labor economist or care about workers & employment, follow & join @Friends_of_BLS.
