Thread by @SimonGleave

The United Kingdom & Germany both failed (again) at Saturday's #Eurovision.

The German reaction: "For 2020, we need to think carefully about how we choose our song and artist"

The British reaction: "If we'd sent Gary Barlow or Elton John, we'd still have been last"

#UK #GER

I know I bang on about this but in the end it is all about the song. Best domestic chart positions:

NED - Number 1 in the Netherlands
ITA - Number 1 in Italy
SUI - Number 8 in Switzerland
NOR - Number 3 in Norway
SWE - Number 1 in Sweden

Great Britain - Number 72 - in Scotland

If the British don't like their song, why would they expect anyone else to like it?

I have seen the same sort of arguments about bias against a particular country play out here in the Netherlands.

From 2005 to 2012, the Dutch entry failed to get past the semi-finals eight times in a row.

During that time, media and people were saying that due to the influx of Eastern European countries, the Dutch were now being shut out by them all voting for each other.

Nothing the Netherlands could ever do would change this.

During that period, the Dutch entry was generally chosen as the British one is now - the public chose it from a selection of songs/artists performing on a TV show.

In 2013, this changed. The Dutch entry was chosen internally - Anouk, a well known Dutch singer was picked.

Anouk's song "Birds" finished 6th in the 2013 semi-final and 9th in the final, the country's best Eurovision performance for 14 years and first final appearance since 2004 when the Netherlands finished 20th.

A year later, the Common Linnets (a duo comprising Ilse de Lange and Waylon - both known artists here in the Netherlands) was internally selected and finished 2nd, beaten only by Conchita Wurst.

This was the best Dutch performance at Eurovision since winning in 1975.

The Netherlands failed to qualify in 2014 but since then finished 11th, 11th, 18th and 1st in #Eurovision.

Throughout this period, song and artist selection has been internal in the Netherlands and NOT open to the public.

This year's victory for the #Netherlands at #Eurovision was achieved by a totally unknown singer, so much so that his announcement was greeted with a lot of criticism in January.

There was a lot of effort put into his song to ensure that it would primarily appeal to the public.

In the #Eurovision televoting on Saturday evening, Duncan Laurence's Arcade received points from every single one of the other 40 participating nations (just as it had from the 17 who voted in Thursday's semi-final).

No other song managed this.

https://twitter.com/SimonGleave/status/1130040972853882880

Arcade also had sufficient interesting stuff musically in it to appeal enough to juries so that if it got points (no song ever gets points from every jury) they would be high.

26 of the 40 juries rated Arcade as one of the best 5 songs, giving the Netherlands 6 or more points.

The message here to the UK and Germany is a simple one. It isn't about whether your representative is known or unknown, it isn't about geopolitics or some bizarre idea that other countries don't like you.

It is primarily about the song and how it is selected.

Germany, like the UK selects via public vote from a TV show.

The quote near the beginning of this thread seems to suggest that they might change this.

Britain's reaction suggests that they won't.

I wonder who'll do better first.

Since the UK last finished in the #Eurovision top-5 (2009: Jade Ewen, "It's My Time", 5th), 24 different countries have finished in the top-5 & 9 nations have won.

Eurovision is very competitive so anyone participating needs a decent entry to do well. The UK is no exception

Just to finish off, semi-finals were introduced to #Eurovision in 2004 but the Big-5 of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom were given automatic places in the final. It is interesting to see what has happened to their performance since (compared to before.

To do this, I have looked at the 16 years from 2004 to 2019 and compared the final results of the Big-5 to those in the 16 years prior to 2004.

France
Average rank 1988 - 2003: 10.25 (6 times in top-5, 11 top-10)
Average rank 2004 - 2019: 17.38 (0 top-5, 1 top-10)

Germany
Average rank 1988 - 2003: 11.88 (4 times in top-5, 7 top-10)
Average rank 2004 - 2019: 16.94 (2 top-5, 5 top-10)

Spain
Average rank 1988 - 2003: 10.94 (3 times in top-5, 8 top-10)
Average rank 2004 - 2019: 19.25 (1 top-5, 2 top-10)

#Eurovision

Italy did not compete in #Eurovision from 1998 to 2010 (or 1994 to 1996) so their last nine were compared to the nine participations before 2004

Italy
Average rank 1985 - 1997: 6.56 (4 times in top-5, 7 top-10)
Average rank 2011 - 2019: 7.89 (4 top-5, 7 top-10)

Italy are therefore the only one of this group to have not seen a fall back in performance since the introduction of semis but maybe their absence means they don't take participation for granted.

The country which has dropped back the most of these five though is the UK.

United Kingdom in #Eurovision
Average rank 1988 - 2003: 8 (7 times in top-5, 12 top-10)

Average rank 2011 - 2019: 19.94 (1 top-5, 1 top-10)

An incredible fall which is almost certainly due to a drop in the entry quality.

Sorry, the above should read 2004 - 2019 of course (silly copy-pasting error which I have just noticed).

And for supporting evidence for someone who knows way more about what makes a successful #Eurovision song than I do, read this excellent thread:

https://twitter.com/kitlovelace/status/1130077109051899904