Thread by @RALee85

Retired naval officer Alexander Shishkin with a critical look at Russia's nuclear sub fleet. He argues the VMF has essentially written off at least 8 nuclear subs over the past few years. He says he is only confident in the combat capabilities of 5 SSNs.
navy-korabel.livejournal.com/203848.html

These 5 are the:
-Project 885 Severodvinsk
-Project 971.1 Gepard
-Project 971 Kuzbass
-Project 945A Pskov
-Project 671RTMK Obninsk
And to a lesser extent:
-Project 945A Nizhny Novgorod
2/

Another 7 are being repaired or awaiting repair, 6 Project 971 and 1 Project 671RTMK submarines. Thus, the VMF's current SSN fleet has a total of 13 submarines, less than half of whom are not currently in operation. The Kazan's delays are exacerbating the situation. 3/

The 8 subs he argues are basically written off
-Project 667BDR K-223 Podolsk, K-433 Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets
-Project 971 K-322 Kashalot, K-331 Magadan, K-295 Samara (will likely be leased to India)
-Project 945 B-239 Karp, B-276 Kostroma
-Project 671RTMK Daniil Moskovskiy
4/

Although many of them haven't been officially written off, most haven't been to sea in awhile, aren't having their nuclear fuel loaded/unloaded, and the Far East's shipyards don't still have the competency to overhaul them. 5/

The status of the Project 667BDR K-223 Podolsk, K-433 Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets means the Pacific Fleet only has 3 SSBN that are supporting the VMF's nuclear deterrence mission: the Project 955 K-550 Alexandr Nevskiy and K-551 Vladimir Monomakh, and Project 667BDR Ryazan.6/

As a reminder, TASS repoted last week that the Project 885M Kazan submarine would not be commissioned this year due to issues with its auxiliary systems, requiring months of repairs, then factory and state tests. Its delivery might be delayed until 2021.7/
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/6…

Since there is interest, another retired naval officer, Maxim Klimov, wrote a critical article regarding Russia's SSN/SSBN fleet in Oct. The VMF's nuclear subs receive the lion's share of its funds, which puts its surface fleet on "starvation rations". 8/
vpk-news.ru/articles/45818

Similarly, he argues Russia's Naval Aviation has also stagnated due to a lack of funding. But the funding that instead went to the new Project 885 Yasen-class and Project 955 Borei nuclear submarines, hasn't provided substantial returns so far. 9/

Regarding the Borei submarines he notes that, "six years after the completion of state tests of the lead submarine and three years after the first serial delivery to the Pacific Fleet, not a single firing of the Bulava SLBM from the Pacific Ocean" has occurred. 10/

The Pacific Fleet has two Borei submarines, the Vladimir Monomakh and Aleksandr Nevskiy, and the other Borei, the Yuri Dolgoruky, is apparently only used for testing and does not play a role in the VMF's nuclear deterrent mission. 11/

Klimov says TsKB Rubin's Sergey Kovalev should be thanked for keeping Project 667BDRM/BDR subs in service, which are actually accomplishing the VMF's leg of the nuclear triad. Though it seems Project 667BDR K-223 Podolsk and K-433 Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets are written off. 12/

He notes that the Project 885 Yasen-class submarines might carry more SLCMs than their American counterparts, but they are too expensive (can't be built in sufficient #'s) to be an effective source of non-nuclear deterrence. 13/

He also noted that the first two Yasens are much slower than the American Seawolf and Virginia-class submarines when traveling at the same noise level, "and this is an extremely serious tactical flaw, the consequences of which are not fully understood by us." 14/