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1. This thread is going to look at where corn planting progress might go in the next week or so. As always, lets start with what Mother Nature is likely to say about what can happen. 
2. Our 18-state weight-avg meaure of surplus topsoil moisture did decline about 5% from the record level last week. Makes sense with less rain in the last week in some areas. But this is not saying much in the wet areas. Topsoil still extremely wet by historical standards.
3. So, starting very wet. And the 7-day precip map is not very encouraging, particularly for much of the eastern Corn Belt that is so late planting corn. We may need to start growing gills here in Illinois.
4. A better planting window did open up in some areas starting Sunday and looks to be extended through Wed. This is the 3 day precip map. Still, not the formula for anything much different than the miserable rate of national corn planting progress we have seen in recent weeks.
5. I think the really important question now is what farmers will plant when they are able to plant. How many are sticking with corn and how many are switching acres to soybeans? How many have or will take prevent plant (PP) on corn?
6. Impossible to in down the answer to that question right now with much precision. I will offer some thoughts. Start with PP. I will really be surprised to see much more corn planting in the western Corn Belt states that had a May 25 PP date.
7. May 25 PP areas will soon be down 10% on crop insurance revenue guarantee. That means if you had an 80% policy your revenue guarantee is only 70% if planting after Tuesday. Only 15% higher than 55% offered by PP.
8. I fully realize that PP decision is VERY complicated. A lot depends on how much cost already incurred and expectations for yield loss on corn. It is also impacted by the outcome in DC of whether PP will be MFP2 eligible.
9. @chuckabbott1 reporting today that @SecretarySonny says he hopes to have “a definitive answer” by the end of this week on whether Trump tariff payments will be offered on prevented-planting land."
