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Good morning☀️(China & HK have tomorrow off💪🏻so feels like Friday):
a) RBI today, likely to follow RBA &✂️(growth soggy in India too despite all that pent-up demand);
b) US data mixed but painting a solid picture - ISM non-manufacturing off the chart 📈 56.9 & details good👇🏻
a) RBI today, likely to follow RBA &✂️(growth soggy in India too despite all that pent-up demand);
b) US data mixed but painting a solid picture - ISM non-manufacturing off the chart 📈 56.9 & details good👇🏻
In contrast to the manu ISM, few discussed tariffs & those that did said limited impact. Employment is tight in construction. Only 1 sector reported a decrease & that is agri. All non-manu sectors expanded so very solid report.
The 📈of expansion is in contrast to China services
The 📈of expansion is in contrast to China services
Let me show u in a chart 👇🏻 the spread b/n US non-manu ISM & China Caixin services (56.9 vs 52.7).
They narrowed in Q1 2019 but are widening again.
They narrowed in Q1 2019 but are widening again.
The US manu sector is more synchronized w/ China (US imports from China). That said, look at China official manu - been flat-lining close to 50 since 2013 while US has more cycles (mostly expansion). Spread at the bottom & widening (less than services though) 👇🏻
Let's continue this w/ Caixin manu & US manu ISM (can't just take state b/c that has less cycles than Caixin as it has more SOEs & they are more policy driven than business cycle driven). Shows the same, they go together but spread widening b/n US & China manu 👇🏻👇🏻
