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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Hasn't May's government already offered a ready-made fudged answer to this question with the proposed no-deal tariff schedule (zero tariffs across the board except in some sensitive sectors)?

politico.eu/article/david-…
i.e. everything that isn't on this spreadsheet faces zero tariffs: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
cc all Tory leadership candidates.

(I have no idea why I'm helping either.)
Wondered when someone would point to this:

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More from @SamuelMarcLowe see all

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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Really not convinced by this section of the #ProsperityUK alternative arrangements proposal.

Creates two tax and regulatory borders rather than one ... and also requires Ireland to create a new tax and regulatory border within Ireland.
I have drawn a diagram to assist understanding.

#dataviz
Also, the logic used to argue in favour of a special economic zone on the border could very easily be expanded to argue in favour of a NI-specific backstop.

#ProsperityUK
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Thread on tomorrow’s unofficial AA group’s publication.
In summary:

Exemptions and trusted trader schemes. Lots of new checks and bureaucracy, just not literally at the border. Something EU won’t accept on SPS. Carving out Derry/LD, Donegal as its own special economic zone (so a tax and regulatory border in both directions).
Not quite clear why this level of disruption and additional disruption would be any more palatable than physical infrastructure. At least acknowledges that there would be a border and friction. Suffers from prioritising fully independent UK trade policy over status quo in NI.
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
.@USAmbEU says rules-based international order and embrace of Russia and China failed to deliver. Russia and China still a threat. Singles out China’s approach to IP, forced-technology transfer and persecution of minorities.

#TransatlanticTalk
.@USAmbEU: US working with business to create a code of conduct on 5G procurement that means “never have to say the words China or Huawei again”.
.@USAmbEU hits out at media for creating doubt re: Iran’s culpability when it comes to ships being attacked in the Gulf.

#TransatlanticTalk
Read 6 tweets

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Mark Matthews
@MarkJMatthews21
I voted Remain, but I now think there is a great opportunity for us in leaving the EU......
......EU regulation is also moving in a more anti-competitive direction and the ability of the UK to break that trend has diminished within the EU.
We will have the opportunity to improve our regulations in transportation, telecoms, energy, retail banking, housing and land, where atm we have many anti-competitive restrictions. We can open up our tariff schedules, putting zero tariffs on goods we don’t produce, lowering costs
Then we can do bilateral trade deals around the world, including a comprehensive trade deal with the EU, a deal with the US, plurilateral access to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and do more to reform services in the WTO. This could inject a significant amount of growth...
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Steve Analyst
@EmporersNewC
This is a great thread looking at Super Canada by David, but I must respectfully disagree with one of the points.

This one specifically, in which the length of the CETA deal is used to determine how long a negotiation might take. It is also an example commonly used to argue the EU is slow at negotiating, and it was anything but common.

Although there is some irony in arguing a CETA deal can be done in 18 months, because in May 2009, at the start of the actual negotiation, the ambition was to deliver it in 18 months. Both sides actually hinted at a 2011 conclusion.

Read 39 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
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#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
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Iran News Wire
@IranNW
According to the @WSJ the Iraqi #government has bank accounts with the U.S. Federal Reserve, where its #dollars are kept, which the Iraqi economy relies upon could be frozen should Iraq violate #sanctions politico.com/magazine/story…
#Iran has deliberately flooded Iraqi market with cheap imports and foodstuffs. This has undercut Iraq agriculture by decreasing demand4 homegrown products that R more expensive. Even if Iraq were2 stop buying these goods #farmers would not B able2 produce enough supplies at home
Iran has political leverage, too. Since the May 12 national #election Iraq’s political elites have been unable to form a government in part because of enormous pressure from #Tehran to install politicians in their favor. Iran’s loyalists succeed and dominate the new government...
Read 4 tweets
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets

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