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1/ 🇪🇺 $TSLA M3 registrations are doing much better than I expected. As many of you know, I've nailed Q1 #'s very accurately, but I had the invoice # method to use, which isn't available in Q2. Actually we can mostly rely on trackers and forums for Q2, which don't seem to be good.
2/ April and May came in quite bad, 3,759 and 2,859 respectively. #Tesla had much bigger inventory available in both months, and results were worse than my estimates. June runs much higher though.

3/ Trackers and forums seemed to be almost dead, so compared to that, June numbers are a surprise. But, we have 3 countries to follow daily: Norway, the second largest market after the US, the Netherlands, which used to be a strong 3rd and Spain, a tiny one.
4/ While no SR+ has been delivered just yet, I don't forecast a flood of them coming, but will certainly cause a visible bump. Based on trackers, 20-25% of sales could come from initial SR+ orders.

For further estimations, let's see where we are and what to expect.
5/ If we assume steady rate of deliveries, we are halfway through June. Based on historycal country shares, Norway data is trending to 6,800-8,600 M3 deliveries in June in whole Europe, the Netherlands is very strong at 10-11k, Spain is much slower at 3,500-5,000.
6/ How will the rest of the countries, especially DACH (Germany, Austria, Switzerland), France and Sweden look like? Will they resemble to Norway, the Netherlands or Spain? We have yet to see that. Last few months had low DACH, surprisingly strong France and slow Sweden.
7/ At least as big a question is if we'll see a month and spike like we always do in Europe? This I don't think, apart from SR+, as there's always been a lack of inventory, which isn't the case right now.
8/ We also surprisingly saw RHD M3's being delivered in the UK, but based on shipping costraints and VIN's registered, I only expect a few hundreds of them this Q.
9/ To sum up, I currently expect 9,000 M3's delivered in Europe in June, making Q2 ~15,500 +-2000 M3's, a 22.5% decline from Q1 at the midpoint (but TBF much higher than my original estimates).
10/ SuX are running slower though. Current figures trend to ~4-4.5k SuX in Europe in Q2, a 38-45% YoY decline, despite all the price cuts and further discounting/promos.
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