Thread by @ejmalrai

Who benefits from today's' attack on tankers?

1/+ Inevitably, accusations will go to #Iran for various reasons. This is one of the accusations but it doesn't mean it is correct. (read more)

https://twitter.com/sfrantzman/status/1139109510004559872

2+/ Accusing #Iran is simple under the say: did it once, did it twice. Here I refer to the Fujeirah attack and the Aramco Houthi attack.

Nevertheless, there are big differences between the attack of today and the one a month ago.

3/+
. A month ago, the attack took place in territorial waters of the Emirates while today's attack is in international waters, increasing 10 folds the responsibilities of the attackers.

4/+
. A month ago, The US sent jet carrier and B-52s, increasing the level of war. Al-Fujairah and Aramco attacks helped to de-escalate and decreased the possibilities of war.

5/+
. Today's attack increases the tension while both #Iran & the #US expressed overtly - & to mediators - their intentions not to go to war and to end the military tension and to keep it within the framework of bras-de-fer, sanctions, way to avoid sanctions & push Europe to act.

5/+
. A month ago, #Iran's message was received and heard. Today's attack puts pressure on Iran, makes it look guilty by those willing to see the crisis escalating and doesn't add up: Iran can't give this attack as a gift to #Japan PM who is highly respected and is mediating.

6/+

This attack of today doesn't either help @realDonaldTrump who doesn't want to go to war and listen to his neocon and #Israel to escalate by sending troops and military effectiveness.

It is very counter-productive for the #US to engage in a war or battle in the ME today.

7/7
. Today's act is not ordered by an employee like John Bolton. Don't give him too much credit. It has been ordered by a country with a good military to launch a torpedo against 1 tanker, an hour later another torpedo against a 2d tanker & pointe the finger to Iran.