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@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge I think the main issue here is strategy and damage control: If you give UK few years time, they may be able to build up some reserves helping them to mitigate no deal for longer than they would if they would drop into no deal in November.
@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge EU is probably reasonably prepared in both cases, but no deal will be painful for them too (painful as in costly), regardless whether it is in November or in few years time.
@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge So their strategy would be to make sure if no deal comes, that it won't last long and that it triggers an existential crisis in UK - as fast and as hard as possible to build up so much pressure that UK concedes on EU's core demands.
@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge There are other points to consider: currently UK is the tail wagging the dog (EU), for a hegemon and geopolitical power this is not acceptable. There is reputation which could be seen as damaged if this drama and nationalism and anti-EU sentiment on steroids last few more years.
@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge Obviously, those sentiments won't go away in UK, especially not if they are steamrolled by EU. But the difference is that they would be steamrolled, visibly weakened and potentially humiliated - possibly partly disassembled. That would be a clear demonstration of power.
@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge *disassembled economically and potentially territorialwise
@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge Additionally, EU is facing challenges in the next years which will need that they have as less side shows as possible. UK receiving a heavy hit, being paralysed and finally put in UK's orbit may still be a nasty piece of work but far less than it'd be if they'd still be in EU.
@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge And finally, once UK experienced that EU can be extremely ruthless and powerful, while realising that UK itself has in any case much less control over their future than they had within EU, may be scared to death to ever try to dodge obligations EU believes UK has to them.
@crowley_gavin @odtorson @nick_gutteridge All those points, lead to very little wriggle room for further extensions. UK's welfare (security wise, economically & territorial) is not of EU's concern (at best instrumental given potential knock on effects to EU economies). But in principle it doesn't matter to them anymore.
