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New research led by @k_r_gonz points to striking #AtmosphericRiver warming trend along U.S. West Coast in recent decades. We found that ARs have already warmed by > 2°C (3.6°F) in some months--faster than previous #climate projections had suggested. (1/8) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20… 
#AtmosphericRiver warming signal is robust in all regions during at least some months, including coastal Washington, Oregon, & California. But warming has been greatest in central & southern CA, especially during January & March. #CAwx #ORwx #WAwx (2/8) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
This #AtmosphericRiver warming appears to be driven by both local and geographically remote warming, but appears to scale most closely with near-shore ocean and local background (non-AR) temperature trends. (3/8) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
Our paper also presents comprehensive climatology of U.S. West Coast #AtmosphericRiver temperature. One interesting tidbit: AR temps tend to be warmer than background temps for PacificNW (NorCal to Washington), but similar to background in SoCal. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20… (4/8)
#AtmosphericRivers can be blessing, curse, or something in between. They bring precip supplying ecosystems, agriculture & cities w/much-needed water, but are also responsible for most W. Coast floods. See recent work by @CW3E_Scripps: journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BA…. (5/8) #CAwater
Even incremental AR warming can dramatically reduce fraction of precip falling as snow vs. rain. This has water supply implications in regions dependent on gradual snowmelt (which includes most of CA). (6/8) #CAwater cc @KathieDello @PPICWater, @_Dr_OpS_ mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/11…
Work by Xingying Huang showed that historical warming substantially increased runoff during 2017 #OrovilleDam crisis. Experts have suggested extra ~35% runoff may have ultimately caused emergency spillway to overtop—dramatically escalating crisis. (7/8)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
It’s highly likely that further #AtmosphericRiver warming will occur as #GlobalWarming continues, but questions remain. Will rapid rate of recent warming of CA ARs continue? Have we underestimated amount of future AR warming? @k_r_gonz & others continue to investigate. (8/8)
