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Korean International Trade Org (KITA) said that Korea's exports are to fall to USD566bn in 2019, down -6.4% from 605bn in 2018. Imports, too, will likely fall -4.1% to USD513bn.

Trade surplus (similar to China) is due to the CONTRACTION OF imports & not growth of shipments😬
KITA also said that the H2 2019 recovery that everyone had hoped for is now super elusive or as it said, "Unlikely" due to protectionism in the US & China and global weakness & DELAYED INVESTMENT GLOBALLY.

Better luck next year then 🇰🇷
That November 2018 25bps hike is looking a bit, well, hmm...

Rate cuts coming for Korea - I forecast 18 July 2019 to reverse November 2018 move ✂️👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
As more Korean firms move to Vietnam (LG, Lotte, Samsung Electronics, etc), some of Vietnam's exports, well, a lot of it to be fair, are actually the DECLINE OF KOREAN EXPORTS.

At the firm level, it's good to reduce input costs but at the labor level, jobs are fewer. 👇🏻👇🏻🇻🇳🇰🇷
Vietnam's and Asia's exports 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 - outperforming the region due to much more aggressive trade liberalization policy, investment incentives, & cheap input costs (labor & electricity)
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