Thread by @Trinhnomics

Radio interview 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻🙉

bloomberg.com/news/audio/201…

Supply chain reshuffling happening in Asia 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 - Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand are all beneficiaries of US-China tariff arbitrage (and of course rising wage costs in China & fewer incentives)

reuters.com/article/us-usa…

Malaysia a winner of reshuffling too 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 - investments in Penang rises

nst.com.my/business/2019/…

Thailand a winner of trade-war too regarding the reshuffling of the supply chain 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Investment booming 🇹🇭💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻 (btw, we predicted this in our scorecard of winners)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Indonesia is getting some (footwear) but not as much as others as FDI policy is not as liberalized & the government is not pushing hard on this as much as others such as Vietnam 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

scmp.com/economy/global…

The Philippines has FOMO as missing out on FDI. It doesn't help that the government is not aggressive in opening up in key sectors that need arbitrage, not aggressive in liberalizing trade policy (Vietnam-EU FTA but PH doesn't have), infra weak too😕👇🏻👇🏻

cnnphilippines.com/business/2019/…

India wants in on the US-China arbitrage too & taking a page out of Vietnam's book. That said, still on the "planning" stage & needs to go to the "doing" soon. India is the only country that is comparable in size to China to capture labor-intensive👇🏻🇮🇳🇨🇳

scmp.com/business/commo…

Not to blow my own horn 📯but defo predicted this:

a) Vietnam 🇻🇳 is the #1 winner of labor-intensive shuffling & Indonesia 🇮🇩 #2 & India 🇮🇳 #3
b) Thailand 🇹🇭 is the #1 winner of medium-tech arbitrage & Malaysia #2
c) The Philippines 🇵🇭 is the WORSE.

The great migration: how FDI is moving to ASEAN & India, & by ASEAN I mean mostly Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand.

Cool fact of the day: In 2018, ASEAN exceeded China in attracting FDI inflows: 🇨🇳China received 139bn, rising by 4% ASEAN received 149bn, rising by 3%💪🏻

Top global host countries for FDI:

#1) USA, obvs
#2) China, obvs

But look at Vietnam- it is not at G20 this weekend (Indonesia is the only ASEAN country there) but makes top 20 for FDI recipients👏🏻. Vietnam nominal GDP was 245 in 2018 so that's 6.5% of GDP 😯🇻🇳

And u're like, who are the randos sending money around the world? Well, well, well, the usual suspects:
a) NIRPers hunting for yield & in this case GROWTH ➡️🇯🇵is the #1 global creditor so it gets to age gracefully & deployed the MOST CAPITAL GLOBALLY, yes, the Japanese funding 🇻🇳