Thread by @SkidRowRadio_YT

THREAD: When is a 2nd ref not a 2nd ref?

When it's the first ref curated by a PM who will actually honour the result.

JC knows a GE is likely to come before brexit is sorted. He knows his PLP will push remain. He can head them off by sayin we'll offer a PV if we win a GE. 1/

Currently the only EU-ratified deal is Mays iron maiden catastrophuck. If a no-dealer becomes PM & marches towards the cliff, parliament will trigger a GE by supporting a VoNC.
Then Labour will have a chance to pitch THEIR deal. 1st to the public & if they win, to the EU. 2/

Thus sabateurs would be faced with having to promote a Corbyn gov on a promise of their own pet project, now official party policy.
They intended to use PV to reverse brexit & damage JC, but this way it could elect JC & ensure Labour's compromise package gets passed. 3/

Corbyn appears supremely relaxed in recent interviews. He has the look of a man who knows exactly what he intends to do, while all around perceive only chaos. His strategical nous has been faultless till this point. I've no reason to doubt it yet. 4/

If there's a better strategy that takes account for all the variables & hurdles he's got to contend with, I haven't heard it.

The problem is the chronology of events. Currently his deck is stacked against him. His impossible task it to get a hostile PLP to work for him.5/

They are shamelessly working to undermine JC. They will not stop. So then, like Mr Miyagi deftly moving aside to let them trip over their own momentum, Corbyn can turn their weaponisation of PV into an asset. 6/

Under this strategy, Blairites can pitch to their supporters & socialists can pitch to theirs with no contradiction as the party would be offering a choice, not a prescribed outcome.
It also would have the genius side effect of removing the ability of parliament to block it. 7/

After demanding a 'final say on the terms of a deal' (ridiculous concept, the public will not read a 600p WA) PVettes can't complain.
Crucially, with no need for a parliamentary vote, Labour's deal would be automatically accepted if leave won ref2. 8/

Thats Corbyns preferred route - GE first, offering a decisive way to end the impasse.
But Abbott has said Labour will support PV on any deal even if a GE can't be triggered. Well the only way that would come to pass is if the new Tory leader accepts Labour's terms for a deal! 9/

That would split the Tory party irrevocably and again, a GE would be sure to follow. There is such opposition to Brexit in parliament that any deal may struggle to pass unless the remainiacs get their PV. 10/

Now, the court of public opinion does not factor in parliamentary machinations. Many Labour leave voters will see ANY rationale for PV as a betrayal.
But JC has to maneuver thru parliament. Public support for leave does nothing to change the equation he faces in the commons. 11/

As LOTO he can't pitch his deal, he can't force the Tories to concoct a sensible deal & he cant rely on parliament to pass a deal without PV attached. But if we get to a GE that all changes. 12/

Promising a PV after a GE win means Corbyn gets to disarm the centrists of their main weapon. It also means they would stick around long enough for CLPs to have an opportunity to deselect them, using the updated rules from last year's conference. 13/

Divided parties dont win elections. The centrists absolutely will not stop, like a terminator dragging its mangled torso across the floor. The only way to neuter them is to take away their weapons. If Labour are committed to PV, they've not much left to complain about. 14/

In this way, PV could be used to encourage remainers to maintain support for Labour at a snap election. Labour is a coalition, we WILL need both leave & remain voters to form a government. While in opposition JC can't control brexit. By winning a GE, he can. 15/

Anything JC can do to make a GE more likely is a good strategy at this point. Threatening the gov with the spectre of PV is one of those methods. If the tories fail to deliver brexit their vote will be decimated even more than the labour vote will by leavers who oppose PV. 16/

This isn't my preferred route, if we had a socialist PLP, we could just promote our deal right to the end. But the truth is Corbyn has to manage his inherited PLP who will stop at nothing to undermine him. Without PV their arsonal is severely diminished. 17/

Keep in mind that it's already too late to hold a referendum before the current brexit deadline. No Tory leadership hopeful will apply for a further extension. So this promise of PV can only materialise after a GE. 18/

So to recap.. Adopting PV neuters centrists, pressures the gov, allows Labour's deal to take centre stage & bypasses parliamentary attempts to block brexit.
We shouldnt have to have PV, it makes no sense but given the circumstances this is why I believe JC has changed tack. 19/

Remainiac MPs are numerous enough to block any plan they don't like. And with Jess Philips blatantly being primed as the next leadership challenger, they won't need much of a reason to kick-start another coup attempt. Corbyn has to keep the ship afloat till a GE. 20/