Thread by @Cajsa

The media is driving the narrative about the Democrats and Nancy Pelosi. They like controversy and division and they create it through false narratives and expectations. For example, if you only pay attention to the media, you would think the incoming Democratic freshmen are 1/

According to the media, the incoming 2018 Freshmen are a bunch of progressive firebrands for whom AOC, Omar, Tlaib, and Pressly are representative of this most diverse, youngest group of elected representatives.2/
time.com/longform/new-m…

But AOC, Omar, Tlaib, and Pressly all won their seats by winning the primary. They held on to already BLUE seats. They did not add a single seat to the Democratic caucus. Their victories did not hand the gavel to the Dems. 3/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_f…

Take NY14 won by @AOC
In 2016, Joe Crowley won 74.8% of the vote. AOC won 78%.
Blue districts going blue is not a revolution and really, @JoshTPm has it right 4/

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1149896011596410880

So John Conyers took Michigan 13 in 2016 with 77.1%
Rashida Tlaib received 81% in 2018
Another blue on blue victory.

Massachusetts 7 won by @AyannaPressley is similar
She got 98% of the vote running unopposed. Her predecessor, Capuano never got less than 80% of the vote.

7/ MN 5 is dear to my heart. I lived there & it used to be represented by my cousin's husband Don Fraser. Omar winning there is to be expected.
In 2016, Keith Ellison got 69% In 2018, @IlhanMN got 78%
Again, blue replaced blue. Important, but it does not change control of Cong

8/ But then there's AZ 2 - where Ann Kirkpatrick picked up a red seat.
In 2016: GOP got 57% In 2018: Dem Kirkpatrick got 54% This is how power shifts in Congress. Picking up RED seats.
And she joined the centrist New Dems
newdemocratcoalition.house.gov

9) CA 10 is another Democratic pickup, totally necessary to control the House
In 2016, GOP Denham won 51.7%
In 2018, Josh Harder won 52.3% And he joined the centrist New Dems

10) CA 21 is another takeover
2016 - GOP won with 56.7%
2018 - Dem TJ Cox 50.4%
He's ranked 170th at Progressive Punch - definitely a centrist, though he has not joined the Blue Dogs....yet.

11) CA-25 Katie Hill defeated Republican incumbent, ranks 165th as progressive
2016-GOP Steven Knight 53.1%
2018-Dem Katie Hill 54.3%
Joined the New Democrats caucus.

12) CA-39, Gil Cisneros defeated Republican incumbent tied Katie Hill at 165th
Joined the New Democrats caucus.
2016: GOP Ed Royce 68.5%
2018: Dem Gil Cisneros 57.2%

13) CA-45: Katie Porter won a GOP district
2016: GOP Mimi Waters 58.6%
2018: Dem Katie Porter 52.1%
Joined the Congressional Progressive Caucus though ranked 151st as progressive
However, her outspoken pushback on Trump in a lean R district is real courage.

14) CA 28th district - Harley Rouda took a Republican district with 53.6% taking out House fixture Dana Rohrabacher
ranked 181 at Progressive Punch
Joined New Democrats Coalition

15) CA 49 Mike Levin replaced Darrel Issa
joined the Progressive Caucus
ranked 98th
progressivepunch.org/scores.htm?top…

16) CO-2 is a Democratic hold by a freshman Joe Neguse
This seat was last in GOP hands in 1975
Neguse is ranked FIRST as most progressive and belongs to Congressional Black Caucus and the Progressive Caucus - where is his attention?

17) CO-6 is another seat taken from the Republicans
Jason Crow is a member of the New Democrat Coalition, the centrist caucus
ranked 170th

18) CT-6 has been Democratic since 2008 and Jahana Hayes is a new freshman - Congressional Black Caucus
ranked 62nd at Progressive Punch

19) FL26th is a takeover of a GOP district by Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
who belongs to both the progressive caucus and the new democrats
ranked 98th progressive

20) FL 27th is a takeover of an R district by Donna Shalala
ranked 58th progressive
in LGBT Caucus and Solar Caucus

21) Bottom line 17 Freshmen Democrats won seats that were already Democratic seats. 42 Freshmen Democrats took over Republican seats. Two-thirds of them joined centrist New Democrat or conservative Blue Dog caucuses. The new face of the Democrats is centrist.

I would go through all the new Dem freshmen class, but it's hot and my cat is howling that it's time for a nap. 27 of the 42 who took over red seats are centrists. The new face is more moderate and more centrist than Pelosi who ranks 32nd most progressive

I cannot leave things undone, so here is my Google Worksheet on the Freshman Dems. Those in blue kept blue seats blue. Those in red turned red to blue.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

And it's not about age either. The youth of the Blue Wave are centrist

The Congressional Progressivee Caucus is concentrated in safer seats where Dems replaced Dems.

The New Democrat Coalition is far larger and has a lot more of the seats that flipped red to blue

The Blue Dog Coalition is smaller and almost completely folks who flipped red seats to blue.

Unsurprisingly, if you sort them by their progressive score, the ones is safe blue seats are more progressive. Funny how people reflect their districts, it's almost as though they are representative.

You can sort the spreadsheet with View access, so if you want to mess around and find new configurations of looking at the freshman class, feel free to add your screenshots and observations. The bottom line - the Blue Wave is centrist & the narrative is BS
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Would I prefer a more liberal Congress. Damn right I would, but just because I support reparations, not only access to but funding through insurance or Medicaid for abortion & fertility/reproductive justice, ENDA, rent control, no-interest government loans and grants for college

and a moratorium on drilling/oil extraction, emission limits, an aggressive agenda to reduce hydrocarbons and save environment and all the other scary shit that is used to terrify the right, I know not everyone agrees with me and so I support working on what good things I can win

with the people who can get elected now in hopes that showing that government can work, can do some things better than the market, can be competent and honest - we can move that Overton window to my side of the room

But right now, the parameters of possible reforms are limited by the success of the right in demonizing the left and the idiocy of the left in picking up their toys and going home when they have to compromise. We have to win, we have to prove success where we can.

And we have to stop staying home when it's not a leap year. We need to vote in every election and we need to make sure Democrats control setting the agenda - even when that means sucking it up and voting for someone imperfect. Because they are all imperfect.