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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Like a band you wish you could forget dropping a "Greatest Hits Album Vol. 1", Mr Rees Mogg has compiled some of the dumbest things said about No-Deal Brexit in one article.

So let's take this hack to the old town road and read, till we can't no more.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
2/ "Oh, a Cardiff University study has debunked the Treasury's analysis? Cardiff is a pretty serious university so let's just have a look..."

"... and it's Patrick Minford."

Of course it is.
3/ The Treasury is indeed negligent in not accounting for the 20 billion pound gross annual contribution Jacob Rees Mogg appears to have made up.

Also, even if you assume it was 20 billion, that would reduce the UK deficit from 43 to 23 billion. Yay?

researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi…
4/ Ah yes, the Treasury FOOLISHLY assumed the EU would do exactly what it has said it will do without realizing that entirely fictional WTO Rules make that illegal.

The EU's plans are entirely WTO compliant. In fact, in many cases, not implementing them would be a breach.
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More from @DmitryOpines see all

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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
The @WTO Director-General manages 625 people. He has no discretionary authority to create, enforce or interpret trade rules.

But hey, if the Prime Minister wants to skip Brussels, Paris and Berlin to come hang with me by the lake in Genf, I'll start mixing the Aperol Spritz's.
Also, the WTO shuts the hell down in August. Today and tomorrow are the final General Council meetings before the summer break.

Seriously, they all bloody leave. It's a ghost town.

Everyone in the city just points their call forwarding at each other and fucks off.
So to summarize, the proposal here is that the incoming Prime Minister "sends a message" by ditching EU capitals for Geneva, to hang out in a largely empty building chatting to an international civil servant with no authority whatsoever over Britain's post-Brexit fate.
Read 4 tweets
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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
Quick point: Faisal's Tweet makes it sound like @tradegovuk is going to spend 14bn flying Liam Fox around to explain negotiations to his counterparts. Obviously not the plan.

This will almost certainly be an Aid for Trade fund, delivered and managed day to day by consultants.
There are already multiple funds across the UK aid portfolio that work this way.

For example, the Trade Advocacy Fund 2 Plus is managed by AECOM for @DFID_UK and delivers a lot of trade related technical assistance.

aecom.com/projects/trade…
Quick explanation of how it works is:

UK government sets aside a pool of money, and establishes a set of objectives for that money.

It then tenders for an external fund manager whose job it is to find or create good projects in line with the fund's objectives and rules.
Read 4 tweets
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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
5/ Explainer: The WTO makes targeted discrimination illegal, but the barriers are anticipated to arise from the EU's treating the trade with the UK as it does trade with any other WTO Member with whom it doesn't have an FTA.

That's not discrimination, it's an obligation.
6/ Treasury's estimate that future FTAs would have negligible impact on GDP is ENTIRELY in line with mainstream economics. Entirely.

FTAs, while creating opportunities in some sectors and generally being good to do, are very rarely sufficiently ambitious to impact national GDP.
7/ Regional trade agreements like the EU CU/SM or NAFTA/USMCA are different because they far more greatly facilitate collaborative production, something the UK economy currently relies on with Europe.

Reminder: By Cardiff he means "I guess manufacturing will die, yolo" Minford.
Read 10 tweets

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So Jeremy Hunt has been talking about No Deal #Brexit
Today

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theguardian.com/politics/live/…
17 August 2018

No Deal would be a "mistake we would regret for generations"
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
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katya adler
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Graham Brady says here: “How to bypass the backstop and come up with a solution? Crucially we don’t need to hammer out those details before tomorrow.” With 29 March fast approaching, when should these details, elusive during 18 months of EU-UK #Brexit negotiations, be hammered? 1
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