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5/ Explainer: The WTO makes targeted discrimination illegal, but the barriers are anticipated to arise from the EU's treating the trade with the UK as it does trade with any other WTO Member with whom it doesn't have an FTA.
That's not discrimination, it's an obligation.
That's not discrimination, it's an obligation.
6/ Treasury's estimate that future FTAs would have negligible impact on GDP is ENTIRELY in line with mainstream economics. Entirely.
FTAs, while creating opportunities in some sectors and generally being good to do, are very rarely sufficiently ambitious to impact national GDP.
FTAs, while creating opportunities in some sectors and generally being good to do, are very rarely sufficiently ambitious to impact national GDP.
7/ Regional trade agreements like the EU CU/SM or NAFTA/USMCA are different because they far more greatly facilitate collaborative production, something the UK economy currently relies on with Europe.
Reminder: By Cardiff he means "I guess manufacturing will die, yolo" Minford.
Reminder: By Cardiff he means "I guess manufacturing will die, yolo" Minford.
8/ The @hmtreasury analysis models many scenarios, of which Net-Zero EEA migration is just one.
In HMT's defense, it must be hard to gauge where the Gov currently resides on the spectrum between "too many brown people" and "EU que jumpers are displacing the brown people!"
In HMT's defense, it must be hard to gauge where the Gov currently resides on the spectrum between "too many brown people" and "EU que jumpers are displacing the brown people!"
9/ At least Mr Mogg admits there is some debate about Minford's vaunted "Liverpool Model" of the UK economy which assumes huge HR departments driven by EU regulations are what's slowing the country down.
Reminder: the UK shaped and voted for most of this regulation.
Reminder: the UK shaped and voted for most of this regulation.
10/ So just so we're clear...
HMT Analysis suggesting a 1.8% GDP impact from making every parcel crossing between EU and UK come with a lot more paperwork: "Ridiculous", clutch monocle.
Minford's assertion cutting EU regulations boosts GDP by 6%: 'Just common sense, really.'
HMT Analysis suggesting a 1.8% GDP impact from making every parcel crossing between EU and UK come with a lot more paperwork: "Ridiculous", clutch monocle.
Minford's assertion cutting EU regulations boosts GDP by 6%: 'Just common sense, really.'
11/ Ahahahaha.
"How can services face border barriers if they don't pay tariffs?"
Ahahahaha.
Ahahahaha.
Be right back, my Australian butt is off to open an IT security firm in Hull using Ukrainian programmers and Chinese money.
No one can stop me, no tariffs on services!
"How can services face border barriers if they don't pay tariffs?"
Ahahahaha.
Ahahahaha.
Be right back, my Australian butt is off to open an IT security firm in Hull using Ukrainian programmers and Chinese money.
No one can stop me, no tariffs on services!
12/ Quick explainer: While services aren't tariffed, their provision is heavily restricted by regulations at and behind the border.
In fact, WTO rules and FTAs do far less to ensure the free-flow of services than they do goods.
In fact, WTO rules and FTAs do far less to ensure the free-flow of services than they do goods.
13/ -beats head on wall-
The costs associated with borders are from the documentary requirements put in place to make inspections unnecessary.
This is like saying Heathrow Airport never has queues because only 1% of travelers are detained for questioning.
The costs associated with borders are from the documentary requirements put in place to make inspections unnecessary.
This is like saying Heathrow Airport never has queues because only 1% of travelers are detained for questioning.
14/ I will concede one thing.
This whole piece was incredibly simple.
/end
This whole piece was incredibly simple.
/end
