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SpinningHugo
@SpinningHugo
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
The only way Johnson could be PM would be to immediately drop his no deal Brexit rhetoric. If he keeps it he'll lose his majority.

/1

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
Current majority 3, with the Brecon byelection on 1 August. That cuts the Tory majority to two (with the DUP). So there are two defections needed (just to independents such as @NickBoles would suffice).
/2
@NickBoles The Fixed-term Parliaments Act doesn't matter here. If he doesn't have the confidence of the Commons, which is tested in a vote, he must resign

/3

spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/may…
@NickBoles If two or more resignations happened before he wins on Wednesday, May must not advise the Q to call on him as he clearly does not command the confidence of a majority of the Commons.

/4
@NickBoles Johnson cannot seek to prorogue Parliament to stop this being tested. If he would lose the confidence of the Commons if he sought to prorogue (and he would) the Q should refuse, asking him to go back to Commons to test issue.
/5
@NickBoles For gamblers, 5/4 are the longest odds available on a General Election this year.

Seems likely to me

/6

oddschecker.com/politics/briti…
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More from @SpinningHugo see all

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SpinningHugo
@SpinningHugo
This brings to mind the best Dr Evil joke in Austin Powers.

"One million dollars!"
I'd have more confidence in Brexit if it's cheerleaders weren't so transparently hopeless. The only remotely credible ones are the "democracy or death" crowd.
Hannan is according to the register of interests a paid consultant of JCB, the owner of which is a prominent Brexiteer.
Read 3 tweets
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SpinningHugo
@SpinningHugo
For #SCOTUS nerds only.

I've just read Kennedy J in Planned Parenthood v Casey on the 14th amendment. The authority cited for the proposition that depriving of 'liberty' doesn't mean imprisonment is Mugler v Kansas.

That case stands for no such rule.

Dreadful
Brandeis J in Whitney v California is more promising but that is a freedom of speech/first amendment case: he is referring to liberties protected elsewhere by the constitution surely?
What a tangled mess US Constitutional law is once you scratch the surface.
Read 3 tweets
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SpinningHugo
@SpinningHugo
Some people are sceptical about the inclusion of socio-economic rights (eg health, education, housing) in "human rights" instruments. They're mistaken . [short thread] theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
The rhetoric of human rights is that they're rights we have simply by virtue of being human in all times and places. This rhetoric is helpful as it is a lever to induce compliance. Which government wants to deny rights so basic?
Unfortunately, this leads to confusion as the rights in the international instruments are simply not rights we all have in all times and places.

Cavemen had no right to education, or to a police force to protect them from being killed for example.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The most interesting part, for me, about this @ShippersUnbound splash is what it says about Team Boris, rather than where the EU/Irish are on #Brexit - it's same old assumption that Merkel or whover is coming to the rescue. Not sure they are. 1/Thread thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/s…
@ShippersUnbound As I think you'll see @simoncoveney say on @AndrewMarr9 #Marr this morning, the Irish are not for turning...and the Coveney Sunday Times piece is pretty clear on that.

It takes a lot to see an "olive branch" in the pledge to use future relationship to do away with backstop /2
@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 That is just EU #Brexit boilerplate, it's the same as Merkel said last week about using the Political Declaration to obviate need for the backstop

- so if UK either accepts NI-only backstop,

- or if all UK remained aligned in a way that makes border

...backstop falls. /3
Read 16 tweets
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Stuart Budd #PeoplesVote 🇬🇧🇪🇺
@StuartBudd1
1/
 Calls are growing for a full public inquiry into #Brexit

Both the Conservative party and the Labour party are ignoring the criminality.

However, sources close to Keir Starmer say, he is already drawing up a list of the people he holds responsible.

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/m…
2/
 The decision to call the #Brexit referendum, May's red lines and Britain’s negotiating strategy are issues that senior figures would like examined.

Senior Tory peer: "We want our Chilcot."

However, nothing on external interference or criminality.

theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
3/
 Tom Watson calls for Chilcot-style Brexit inquiry.

"We do need to understand how on earth we ended up where we are and it needs to go back to the decisions around holding a referendum."
Bob Kerslake, former head of civil service

#BexitInquiry

politicshome.com/news/uk/politi…
Read 4 tweets
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Pieter Cleppe
@pietercleppe
Senior sources say UK prime minister May has secured private #Brexit concessions from Brussels that will allow her to keep the whole of Britain in a customs union, avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/r…
EU concession 1: The EU will write an all-UK customs deal into the legally binding withdrawal agreement so an EU-designed “backstop” treating Northern Ireland differently from the UK mainland is not required
EU concession 2: There will be an “exit clause” to convince Eurosceptics the UK will not be under the EU's customs regime for ever
Read 8 tweets
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Pieter Cleppe
@pietercleppe
Here's a thread attempting to set out the #Brexit timetable for the next few months, based on this insightful @brunobrussels article:
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/a…
Salzburg Summit 20 Sept:
"Shouting over the “backstop” + starting point of a '“political declaration” on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
Tory party conference 1-3 Oct:
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
Read 12 tweets
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
Some #Brexit notes on where it’s at
EU gearing up for Brexit endgame but May will not get a chance to discuss Chequers/future relationship with all other European leaders until a final summit in Nov (or even Dec)
Salzburg summit in 3 weeks - May will address all 28 but with no discussion 
Completely separately Macron is pushing for a full EU28 discussion on future of Europe
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/m…
Read 30 tweets
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Louise Mensch
@LouiseMensch
Congratulations to @thetimes who have come up with the ultimate #Brexit - #TrumpRussia exclusive
Bottom line - @Arron_banks of @LeaveEU acted as a courier, passing telephone numbers of Trump Transition team members to Russian spies like @Amb_Yakovenko in the UK working out of @RussianEmbassy - right after Banks and @andywigmore had dinner with @realDonaldTrump :)
Also present at the meeting in Trump Tower - @g_strategies and @RaheemKassam

OUCH

It is a major coup for the Times. From their reporting, some patriot #FVEY hackers went into @IsabelOakeshott emails and handed these details to The Times (not the Guardian, interestingly)
Read 4 tweets

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