Profile picture
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Everyone is offering their advice to the new PM on solving Brexit - so here's mine. In short get your negotiating team lined up, know your own position, and then use what flexibilities there are to get a deal, as no-deal will wreck your time in office linkedin.com/pulse/new-pms-…
Unlike @JohnSpringford I don't think a General Election on a no-deal platform is the right path for a new PM as I don't think they'd win. But all serious analysis of Brexit must recognise that this is a mess with no easy solutions
@JohnSpringford Summary Brexit advice to PM:

- Say you want deal but preparing for no-deal
- Appoint chief negotiator
- Meet MPs, business etc
- Recognise reality of no-deal / US no substitute
- EU FTA no easier
- Don't threaten EU
- Negotiating space exists, use it
- Brexit deal, win election
@JohnSpringford If this Brexit plan sounds naive, of course, given the starting point any thought of solving Brexit easily is naive. The question is only what is the least naive approach, since all plans will have inevitable flaws.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to David Henig
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK see all

Profile picture
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This debate rather passed me by, and I suspect it will rather pass most MPs by, but there are some critical questions, none more than 'why FTAs with US, Australia, New Zealand'? No convincing rationale has ever been offered, given these are already relatively open economies.
Second fundamental trade question, why do we want trade agreements? What are our particular exporting sectors, or rather, what will they be in the years to come, and what barriers that can be addressed do we seek to remove?
Third question, what do we have to offer to trade agreement partners in exchange for what we want? Do we want to retain some high tariffs so they can be bargained away, or not? Otherwise we are pretty open as an economy except in terms of visas. Is that our big offer?
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Many words will be written and spoken about Brexit and Boris Johnson but there's only one fundamental choice - accept the conditions that come with a relationship with the EU, or go for a long term no-deal position, likely to mean early general election of uncertain outcome
You can negotiate the EU's conditions a bit. But there's no choice where we get everything we want, with no conditions. GATT24 isn't going to save you, or any WTO agreements, or calling the Irish border a fictional problem, or whatever the invention of the day is
No-deal is also not a sustainable end state, as a trading nation we will need deals with our nearest trading partners, with their conditions, and they will happen with a change of Government. So the real choice we're facing is accept an EU deal comes with conditions now or later
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Good and realistic reading. Yet again looks like a Liam Fox valedictory, the detail doesn't seem to chime with the Johnson 'believe harder' agenda. And like so much trade policy too much focus on Free Trade Agreements not enough on the other tools available
Well this is awkward, but perhaps if the relevant members of Congress believe harder then a UK-US trade deal can still happen (more likely incidentally is a 'trade' deal which is about cooperation rather than tariff removal etc)
Anyway, thoughts at this time with the officials who have to write the Brexit briefing notes for new Ministers, balancing being helpful, with also having to explain a few realities. Treasury must be particularly looking forward to this given some suggestions of Ministers there
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders pretty convinced they will soon by faced with Boris Johnson as new UK PM and opinion is split /1
Talk to different EU diplomats and politicians from different EU countries and you’ll get a number of different opinions as to how #Brexit will play out in the autumn /2
Some see BJ as one of the key architects of the Leave vote and therefore one of the few UK politicians able to sell a compromise deal with the EU to Parliament /3
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Simon Fraser
@SimonFraser00
1/9: While Conservatives choose our new PM (a process clearly less democratic than a 2nd referendum) #Brexit still looms over us. Whatever they claim, will Johnson or Hunt be able to deliver an outcome? Changing the leader does not change the facts. Here’s a thread of 9 on this.
2/9: PM Johnson or PM Hunt will face the same problems as PM May. EU negotiators will still refuse significantly to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. The Commons, in which the PM will have no solid majority, will still oppose both the current deal and no deal.
3/9: Both candidates say they can renegotiate the backstop & get a “better deal”. But how? EU leaders have no faith in alternative British ideas for the Irish border & will not just fudge it. They are ready to discuss future UK/EU relations, but UK doesn’t know what it wants.
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
So.. back to the backstop: Clearly the official EU line is “We’re not budging. The #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement was signed off by Theresa May and cabinet. End of story.” And there is 100% EU sincerity they would love not to have to discuss the thorny issue ever again. But.. /1
Realpolitik means EU leaders know a new UK PM will mean new #Brexit arguments - and crucially - since the EU hopes fervently to avoid no deal - it means new mathematics in Parliament. EU will watch closely to see if new PM could carry a majority for a #Brexit deal /2
To be clear: I am NOT saying here that EU will abandon the backstop if faced with strong new UK PM. EU wants to protect its single market, protect GFA and protect member state Ireland over departing member UK BUT /3
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
PM will soon address EU leaders at Brussels summit. She normally speaks for approx 15 mins. EU leaders can then ask her questions but they won't all sit and 'negotiate' together. After questions, Theresa May will leave the room so the 27 leaders can debate amongst themselves /1
EU leaders reject narrative that there's only 2 options now: Theresa May's deal or a no deal #Brexit . They will also debate option of a longer extension if the deal is rejected again by parliament next week /2
EU sees no 'ideal' solution here. They don't like idea of a long extension or rolling short extensions with permanent threat of a no deal #Brexit round the corner ("We've had enough drama" one EU diplomat told me) BUT leaders will want to avoid a no deal Brexit if they can /3
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Pegasus CorpGovnance
@PegasusCorpInfo
“We can therefore be confident that most members of Unite, Unison and GMB (which have a combined membership of more than 3 million people) really do want the UK to stay in EU, and a chance to vote in a fresh referendum once the negotiations are complete" gu.com/p/9b5ca/stw
"Their reasons are clear. It’s not that trade union members are indulging in gesture politics or ideological breast-beating ……" gu.com/p/9b5ca/stw
#Brexit #PeoplesVote
"They are worried about the impact of Brexit on jobs, taxes, living standards and the NHS. They fear a Brexit Britain would find it harder to sell products and services abroad ...….." gu.com/p/9b5ca/stw
#Brexit #PeoplesVote
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. I've noticed that threads debunking the WTO #Brexit option have become something of a cottage industry. They are all the rage these days. It doesn't do any good though because we are not actually dealing with people who respond to facts. We are dealing with a belief system.
2. Certainly it helps to raise awareness among those who are not intellectually subnormal but the people who most need to listen simply won't. They are not thinking it through and they are oblivious to the breadth of EU integration and just how much the EU really does.
3. That's because most of what the EU does is "invisible government". That which you'd never know existed unless it concerned you directly. This ignorance, however, is shared equally among remainers and leavers.
Read 22 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #GE2017 #G20 #EUCO #NHS #Investment #GDP #Remain #brexit #Brexodus #Brextremists #NoDealBrexit #PeoplesVote #GDPR #FinalSay #Labour #Tories #Education #A50 #EU #EUWithdrawalBill #Management #KeepTheFaith #DExEU #BrexitDK
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!