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1/ Very short thread on today's Adam Jonas $TSLA note, as I'm taking lots of incoming, including from the formidable artillery of @markbspiegel.
2/ Jonas took a meat cleaver to his $TSLA revenue forecasts. Slashed 2019 revenue by $1.06B. Slashed 2020 revenue by $1.63B.
3/ He also slashed EPS forecasts. Jonas sees a GAAP 2019 loss of $8.94. And, very worst of all, for 2020, he went from positive 32 cents a share to negative $3.39 a share.
4/ Is there hope after 2020? Jonas offers none. He goes out only as far as 2020. I really respect that. And, he offers GAAP numbers. That I respect as well.
5/ So, the bottom line is that as an auto company, you can stick a fork in $TSLA. It's losses all the way down. So, then, why the $230 price target?
6/ Here's the key passage: 
7/ Spiegel is right to deride Jonas keeping his $230 price target based on the reductions in the Cap Ex forecast. But, it's obvious to me that Jonas doesn't mean it. Keep reading that passage...
8/ If "forward demand" is the most important fundamental lever for Tesla's share price & financial condition, then the writing is on the wall. $TSLA is cooked. Price target is $10. (Hey, even PG&E equity is worth something.)
9/ On the other hand, if you harbor hope that $TSLA has "significant strategic value" that can somehow trump DCF analysis, then we're in a different reality. Let's imagine "funding secured" from the SoftBank Fund 2, name Adam Neumann to the Board, & go with $391.
10/ So, in my view, Jonas is telling us that while $230 is his price target, the only likely outcomes are either close to zero (auto company) or much more (endless life as a unicorn). <fin>
