Thread by @DoctorTro

How stasticians arrived at the conclusion that the BlueZones are FRAUD.

🔑 Thread with key excerpts

1/n

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…

“When these states transition to state-wide birth registration, the number of supercentenarians falls by 80% per year“

2/n

“The US data support the hypothesis that improved vital registration should reduce the number of supercentenarians, and be associated with changing patterns of old-age survival, by reducing age-coding error rates.”

3/n

“Likewise, findings from the Italian data support the hypothesis that these ‘semisupercentenarians’ largely constitute a collection of age reporting errors. “

4/n

“Italians over the age of 100 are concentrated into the poorest, most remote and shortest-lived provinces, while US supercentenarians are concentrated into populations with incomplete vital registries...”

5/n

“Both patterns are difficult to explain through biology, but are readily explained as economic drivers of pension fraud and reporting error.”

6/n

“These results may reflect a neglect of error processes as a potential generative factor in remarkable age records. For example, Okinawa has the highest number of centenarians per capita of any Japanese prefecture and remains world-famous for remarkable longevity.”

7/n

”Okinawa also has the highest murder rate per capita, the worst over-65 dependency ratio, the second-lowest median income, and the lowest median lifespan of all 47 Japanese prefectures”

8/n

“The hypothesis that these relatively low literacy rates and incomes are generating age-reporting errors and pension fraud, and therefore remarkable age records, seems overlooked.”

9/n

“Indicators of poverty and fraud, and contra-indications of health, are also ignored in remarkable-age surveys. For example, smoking rates of e.g. 17-50% and illiteracy rates of 50-80% are often observed in samples of the oldest-old.”

10/n

“Surveying the ‘blue zone’ of Ikaria, Chrysohoou et al. observed that the oldest-old have: a below-median wage in over 95-98% of cases, moderate to high alcohol consumption, a 10% illiteracy rate, an average 7.4 years of education, & a 99% rate of smoking in men”

11/n

BASICALLY: it may be more likely that BlueZones are a fraud.

12/12

Massive drop ! After birth certificates!